Verdict:
• Short-run Neutral.
Macro:
• The Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam has issued a notice officially launching anti-dumping investigations on hot rolls originating from China and India. From January to June 2024, the total amount of steel exported from China to Vietnam reached 6.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 80.9%, of which sheet metal products accounted for 66.9%. Vietnam is China’s main steel export market.
• CITI Bank decreased China economic growth in 2024 from 5% to 4.8%, because of the less than expected growth rate in Q2 from analysts.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $101.45, -0.50, MTD $106.51. Iron ore saw resilient demand from late half of last week. However physical traders would buy after futures correction instead of chasing high. The marginal demand of iron ore was decreasing while the supply maintained high. Thus, the rebound of iron ore was limited.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Jul 29th)
• Futures 124,069,600 tons(Increase 1,073,900 tons)
• Options 166,849,000 tons(Increase 1,580,000 tons)
Steel Key Indicators:
• MySteel researched at least 22 steel mills in China entered maintenance from late July to late August because of the production loss in July. MySteel estimated a minimum impact of 2.19 million long steel production during the maintenance period.
Coal Indicators:
• The decreasing of FOB Australia coking coal slowed yesterday. A Peak Down origin coking coal was sold at $217.5/mt to Chinese steel maker, which was $2 higher after normalised than expected late last week.
