Focus in international urea markets has been on India’s most recent purchasing tender by RCF, and whether it would support the recent rebound in global urea prices. Early reports of sub $240/t cfr being offered for both east and west coast India point to softer prices globally.
The question now, is how much volume will be offered at these levels, with a significant Chinese participation likely to put further pressure on the market to find outlets for product. Alternatively, if India can’t purchase the tonnes they require at these levels, expectations are they’ll be back tendering in quick succession. In the interim, international paper markets have been quiet, as the market seeks clearer direction.
Nola urea futures prices have been rangebound coming out of the spring season of 2020. As we start making our way through side dress / top dress demand across the corn belt and the rice run in the delta we’re starting to get a clearer picture of where price direction is this summer.
We’re seeing moderate carry from July to Q4 right now reflecting more optimism for fall demand, however this has diminished somewhat after the Indian tender prices came out. One of the more popular trades right now is Q4 and Q1 Nola urea futures, value has slipped this week and is approximately $207 on Q4, and $212 on Q1.