AG paper supported at $220/t
AG urea paper has seen support this past week around the $220 level on the prospect of continued Indian demand, but hasn’t traded this past week. India was only able to secure 628,000 tonnes in their most recent purchasing tender, well short of forecast requirements. Combined with double the national crop area having already been planted vs this same point last year, the market expects another tender in short succession, with significant volume still needed to be bought. This is expected to support AG prices over the short term.
Egypt urea quiet on physical, sold down on paper
Egypt paper on the other hand, was under selling pressure last week, eventually trading at $227 for the August contract, despite price ideas still around $240 from physical producers. Physical markets have been inactive of late, with producers comfortable through July and limited demand in northern hemisphere markets. However, the sentiment on paper suggests a correction is expected once producers need to start selling again.
Mixed news out of Brazil
Brazil urea paper had a mixed week, initially sold down on nearby paper in reaction to lower physical sales early last week. Into the end of the week however, we saw prices rebound, with small lot sales up to $255/t cfr being reported. Paper markets as such have remained wide, as the market digests the mixed physical business and looks for a clearer outlook on direction.
Nola urea slows after the spring season
Nola urea remains relatively rangebound, as we go through a period of slower demand after spring crop planting. Deferred markets saw most of the attention on paper this past week, with Q420 and Q121 both being traded in line with previously done levels ($208 and $214 respectively).
Countervailing duty investigations in US phosphate markets
Big news in phosphate markets this past week as Mosaic filed for countervailing duty investigations on Moroccan and Russian phosphate imports into the US. The claims are based on domestic competition being distorted due to large volumes of “unfairly subsidised” product from the two origins. We saw an immediate reaction on Nola DAP futures with Q4 trading up, first at $275 then $280 shortly after on Friday, however reaction in international phosphate markets has been muted thus far, with no impact seen on the other phosphate futures contract – Brazil cfr MAP.
CF Industries summer fill pricing
CF Industries announced their summer fill pricing for UAN last week. While physical markets were lively as a result, Nola UAN swaps are yet to trade and values largely unchanged, if not slightly softer with offers starting to get more aggressive after having their fill on physical.