Good morning all. Brent futures was up 9 cents/b, or 0.20%, at $44.59/b at 2:15 am GMT, while NYMEX WTI crude contract was up by 4 cents/b, or 0.10%, at $41.65/b. American Petroleum Institute data published on Tuesday showed a fall of 4.4 million barrels in US crude inventories, more than analysts’ expectations of a 2.9 million-barrel draw. Official government data is due on Wednesday. Gasoline and distillates stockpiles also fell last week, the API said, while inventories at the Cushing storage hub rose by 1.1 million barrels.
Market participants will look to the more definitive weekly US inventory report due for release by the Energy Information Administration later in the day for further cues. Notably, it will be the third consecutive week of drawdown in US commercial crude inventories if the official EIA data confirms the API industry report released on Aug. 11.
Meanwhile, even as the number of daily new COVID-19 infections worldwide and in the US edged down, growing uncertainty over a stalemate in Washington in talks for a stimulus package to support recovery from the deepest impact of the pandemic may weigh on prices looking ahead, especially as global supply is expected to increase.
On the supply side, OPEC+ is raising output to match higher quotas under the supply agreement. Saudi Aramco gave full contracted oil supply for September sales to at least seven customers in Asia, according to Bloomberg.
In the US, better prices are encouraging some shale producers to restart previously curtailed wells. The EIA raised its estimate of US supply to 11.14mb/d in 2021, against its previous forecast of 11mb/d set in July. The US Energy Information Administration, in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, released August 11 raised its outlook for global oil demand by 250,000 b/d from last month’s forecast to 93.14 million b/d for 2020 and by 280,000 b/d to 100.16 million b/d for 2021. It also expects oil spot prices to hover in the low $40s/b as “high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months”.
MARKETS NEWS:
* OIL ALLOCATIONS: Iraq Gives Full Supply to 1 in Asia, Cuts to 1
* API Reports U.S. Crude Stockpiles Fell 4.01M Bbl Last Week
* EIA Raises 2021 U.S. Crude Output Forecast to 11.14m b/d
* Occidental’s Lone Permian Rig Shows Severity of Shale Bust
* India’s July Oil Products Consumption Falls 12% Y/y
* Iraq Cuts Basrah Light OSP to Asia for First Time Since May
* Jet Fuel Hits 5-Month High as Passenger Travel Picks Back Up
* OIL DEMAND MONITOR: Full Recovery Elusive in 2020 on Quiet Skies
* Shell-Booked Tanker Sets Sail After 100 Days on Floating Storage
* AMERICAS-EUROPE FUEL: Flows Jump to Highest Since Lockdown Began
OTHER NEWS:
* Why So Much World Trade Passes Mauritius’s Pristine Beaches
* Global Oil-Service Jobs Dropping to Decade Low, Rystad Says
* U.S.-China Trade Deal Is ‘Fine,’ Trump Adviser Kudlow Says
* Occidental Cancels Algerian Sale Intended to Help Repay Debt (2)
* Noble Contacted 10 Companies About Deals Before Chevron Takeover
* PetroChina Took Control of Oil Tankers From Venezuela JV: Rtrs
PHYSICAL CRUDE NEWS:
* ASIA: Adnoc Cuts Murban OSP; ONGC Offers Oct.-Nov. Sokol
* LATAM: YPF Fuel Prices; Napo Sale; Tupras Tender
* US/CANADA: 2021 U.S. Crude Output Forecast at 11.14m b/d
* NSEA: Equinor Offers Oseberg Lower; Litasco Bids Again
* MED: Gunvor Sells Urals at Higher Price; Iraq Cuts OSPs
* WAF: Most Angolan Cargoes Cleared; ST Shipping Books VLCC
OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: API Reports U.S. Crude Stock Draw
* EUROPE: Flow From Americas Jumps; Donges CDU Halts
* ASIA: Indian Farmers’ Fuel Hacks; Diesel Glut Grows
ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London)
* 3:30pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report
** TOPLive blog coverage begins at 3:20pm
* OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
* Genscape weekly ARA crude inventory report
ANALYST COLUMNS:
* Global Oil Market Edging Towards ‘Flow Balance:’ StanChart
* Oil Price Recovery? Be Careful When Wishing for Tighter Balances
* Gasoline Faces ‘Uncertain Future’ Before Turnarounds: Mizuho
* U.S. Horizontal Drilling Unlikely to Rebound This Year: Rystad
OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Asian Stocks Retreat While Gold Extends Slide: Markets Wrap
Singapore 380 INDIC
Sep20 254.50 / 256.50
Oct20 254.75 / 256.75
Nov20 256.00 / 258.00
Dec20 257.75 / 259.75
Jan21 259.75 / 261.75
Feb21 261.75 / 263.75
Q4-20 256.00 / 258.00
Q1-21 261.50 / 263.50
Q2-21 266.50 / 268.50
Q3-21 270.50 / 273.50
CAL21 266.75 / 272.75
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Sep20 245.50 / 247.50
Oct20 243.75 / 245.75
Nov20 243.50 / 245.50
Dec20 244.00 / 246.00
Jan21 245.75 / 247.75
Feb21 247.50 / 249.50
Q4-20 243.75 / 245.75
Q1-21 247.25 / 249.25
Q2-21 251.75 / 253.75
Q3-21 254.75 / 257.75
CAL21 250.25 / 256.25
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep20 305.50 / 310.50
Oct20 308.75 / 313.75
Nov20 311.75 / 316.75
Dec20 314.00 / 319.00
Jan21 317.75 / 322.75
Feb21 321.25 / 326.25
Q4-20 311.50 / 316.50
Q1-21 321.00 / 326.00
Q2-21 329.00 / 335.00
Q3-21 335.75 / 341.75
CAL21 331.50 / 337.50
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep20 326.25 / 331.25
Oct20 328.75 / 333.75
Nov20 331.25 / 336.25
Dec20 333.75 / 338.75
Jan21 337.00 / 342.00
Feb21 340.00 / 345.00
Q4-20 331.25 / 336.25
Q1-21 340.00 / 345.00
Q2-21 347.50 / 353.50
Q3-21 354.00 / 360.00
CAL21 350.00 / 356.00
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Sep20 50.47 / 50.61
Oct20 50.81 / 51.01
Nov20 51.15 / 51.35
Dec20 51.51 / 51.71
Jan21 51.97 / 52.17
Feb21 52.42 / 52.62
Q4-20 51.15 / 51.35
Q1-21 52.43 / 52.63
Q2-21 53.73 / 53.93
Q3-21 54.91 / 55.11
CAL21 54.05 / 54.45
ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC
Sep20 381.31 / 383.31
Oct20 385.91 / 387.91
Nov20 388.79 / 390.79
Dec20 392.32 / 394.32
Jan21 396.31 / 398.31
Feb21 399.82 / 401.82
Q4-20 389.00 / 391.00
Q1-21 399.04 / 401.04
Q2-21 408.43 / 410.43
Q3-21 418.33 / 420.33
CAL21 412.36 / 414.36
Rott Hi5 Sing Hi5
Sep20 66 77
Oct20 71 79
Nov20 74 80
Dec20 76 81
Jan21 78 82
Feb21 80 83
Q4-20 73 80
Q1-21 79 83
Q2-21 84 86
Q3-21 87 88
CAL21 86 88