Morning Oil Report 2/9/20

Good morning all. WTI futures rose 34 cents to $43.10 as of 3:10 am GMT, while Brent futures rose 37 cents to $45.95 a barrel.

Better-than-expected US manufacturing data also came a day after a private gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity.

The headline ISM manufacturing index rose to 56.0, reflecting continued expansion for the US economy. It also marks the third consecutive reading above the 50 level

On the other hand, in China the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI grew strongly, while official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Aug. 31 showed Chinese services PMI at its highest since 2018.

Meanwhile, a private inventory report by the American Petroleum Institute released on September 1 showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in US crude stockpiles for the week ended August 28. Crude oil inventories declined by 6.36 million barrels to about 501.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks also fell by 5.8 million barrels, more than analysts’ estimates of a draw of 3.0 million barrels.

On the supply side US Gulf of Mexico offshore oil output on Tuesday was down by 525,099 barrels per day, or 28.4% of the region’s daily production, the U.S. Department of Interior reported, as energy companies restarted more activity in the aftermath of Hurricane Laura. The slower-than-expected resumption in output is raising concern over tighter supply according to Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitomi Co.

Elsewhere, oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose by about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, a Reuters survey found.

The United Arab Emirates pumped 2.693 million bpd in August, above its OPEC+ quota, after hot weather and people holidaying at home drove associated gas demand for power generation, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Market participants will look to the more definitive weekly US inventory report due for release by the Energy Information Administration due later today for further cues. Notably, it will be the sixth consecutive week of drawdown in US commercial crude inventories if the official EIA data confirms the API industry report released on September 1 and would be ultimately bullish for the global crude complex.

MARKETS NEWS:
* OPEC Supply Boost Tempered by Quota Cheats’ Extra Cuts
* Oil’s Golden Cross a Bullish Sign as U.S. Stockpiles Ease: Chart
* UAE’s Oil Production Exceeded OPEC+ Target in August: Minister
* PDVSA to Transfer Oil Out of Listing Vessel in Paria Gulf: Argus
* Canadian Heavy Oil Gains as Diluent Pipeline Is Shut After Spill
* API Reports U.S. Crude Stockpiles Fell 6.36M Bbl Last Week
* U.S. Gulf Shuts in 525.1K B/D or 28% Oil Production: BSEE
* Sonangol Pushes Sept.-Loading Saturno Oil Cargo Into October
* Nigeria Plans to Export 31K B/d of Okono Crude in October
* Caspian CPC Blend Exports Revised Down to Four-Year Low in Sept.

OTHER NEWS:
* Shale Loses Another Global Giant After Schlumberger’s Frack Sale
* StanChart’s Global Head of Commodities Belentepe Is Leaving
* Apollo-Led Group Invests $2.7 Billion in UAE Oil Firm’s Property
* Exxon Offers Voluntary Redundancies in Australia Amid Oil Rout

PHYSICAL CRUDE NEWS:
* ASIA: Indian Diesel Sales Dip M/m; Malaysia Announces OSPs
* LATAM: Venezuela Oil Exports Rebound; FPSO Nabarima
* US/CANADA: Shell Stones Platform Set to Resume Tuesday
* NSEA: Seven Offers For BFOET Grades; Buzzard Share Rose
* MED: CPC Loadings Revised to 4-Year Low; Hellenic Tender
* WAF: Exports Edge Lower in August; Perenco Sells to Unipec

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Two Texas Refineries Await Power to Restart
* EUROPE: Grangemouth; Feyzin FCC; Bullish Bets Drop
* ASIA: India Aug. Diesel Sales Slide; Weak Refining

ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London.)
* 3:30pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report
* Genscape weekly ARA crude inventory report
* CPC revised loading program for September
** See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week’s events

ANALYST COLUMNS:
* China’s State Refiners to Boost Sept. Fuel Exports 13% M/m: JLC
* Global Fuel Demand in 2020 to Fall 5.9% Y/y: Fitch Solutions

OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Stock Futures Up, Asia Shares Mixed; Rupiah Drops: Markets Wrap

Singapore 380 INDIC

Oct20 268.50 / 270.50

Nov20 268.00 / 270.00

Dec20 268.00 / 270.00

Jan21 269.25 / 271.25

Feb21 270.75 / 272.75

Mar21 272.25 / 274.25

Q4-20 268.00 / 270.00

Q1-21 270.75 / 272.75

Q2-21 275.00 / 277.00

Q3-21 278.50 / 281.50

CAL21 275.00 / 281.00

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC

Oct20 254.25 / 256.25

Nov20 252.50 / 254.50

Dec20 252.25 / 254.25

Jan21 253.25 / 255.25

Feb21 254.50 / 256.50

Mar21 255.75 / 257.75

Q4-20 253.00 / 255.00

Q1-21 254.50 / 256.50

Q2-21 258.00 / 260.00

Q3-21 260.25 / 263.25

CAL21 257.00 / 263.00

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC

Oct20 331.75 / 336.75

Nov20 334.50 / 339.50

Dec20 337.25 / 342.25

Jan21 340.00 / 345.00

Feb21 342.50 / 347.50

Mar21 345.00 / 350.00

Q4-20 334.50 / 339.50

Q1-21 342.50 / 347.50

Q2-21 349.75 / 355.75

Q3-21 356.50 / 362.50

CAL21 354.75 / 360.75

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC

Oct20 311.75 / 316.75

Nov20 314.00 / 319.00

Dec20 316.50 / 321.50

Jan21 320.00 / 325.00

Feb21 323.50 / 328.50

Mar21 326.75 / 331.75

Q4-20 314.00 / 319.00

Q1-21 323.50 / 328.50

Q2-21 331.50 / 337.50

Q3-21 338.25 / 344.25

CAL21 336.25 / 342.25

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC

Oct20 49.71 / 49.85

Nov20 50.14 / 50.34

Dec20 50.61 / 50.81

Jan21 51.14 / 51.34

Feb21 51.68 / 51.88

Mar21 52.21 / 52.41

Q4-20 50.10 / 50.40

Q1-21 51.63 / 51.93

Q2-21 53.11 / 53.41

Q3-21 54.36 / 54.66

CAL21 53.50 / 53.90

ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC

Oct20 374.80 / 376.80

Nov20 379.27 / 381.27

Dec20 383.52 / 385.52

Jan21 388.39 / 390.39

Feb21 393.15 / 395.15

Mar21 396.53 / 398.53

Q4-20 379.20 / 381.20

Q1-21 392.69 / 394.69

Q2-21 401.91 / 403.91

Q3-21 411.65 / 413.65

CAL21 408.63 / 410.63

Rott Hi5 Sing Hi5

Oct20 59 65

Nov20 63 68

Dec20 66 71

Jan21 68 72

Feb21 70 73

Mar21 72 74

Q4-20 63 68

Q1-21 70 73

Q2-21 75 77

Q3-21 79 79

CAL21 79 79

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