Ferrous Market
– MySteel surveyed Tangshan winter production curb will decrease 2.7 million tonnes of steel production. In the year 2019 production curb impact 6.3 million tonnes.
– Steelbank Inventory: construction steel inventories 7.31 million tonnes, down 0.91% compared to the week before golden weeks. HRC 2.5 million tonnes, up 17.17% to the week before golden weeks.
– Hedland port statistic indicated Australia delivery to China in September 39.74 million tonnes, up 10.2% y-o-y, down 1% from August. Hedland September iron ore global delivery 45.57 million tonnes, up 8.6% y-o-y, down 1.1% from August.
– MySteel Australia and Brazil iron ore total delivery at 120.61 million tonnes, up 1.54 million tonnes. Daily evacuation 3.18 million tonnes up 248,900 tonnes w-o-w. Australia iron ore delivery 59.02 million tonnes, up 29,600 tonnes w-o-w. Brazil delivery to China 33.33 million tonnes, up 948,800 tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore delivery 7.6 million tonnes, up 568,000 tonnes w-o-w. 162 ships at ports, up 3 ships.
Macro and Coal
– China Central Bank, PBOC sets Yuan fixing weaker than estimated, security analysts believed yuan appreciation potentially limited in the last quarter.
– Mongolia Customer statistic indicated Jan – Sep coal export 19.82 million tonnes, September export 4.65 million tonnes, up 17.17% compared to August.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest(Oct 9th)
– Futures 83,264,600 tonnes(increase 13,013,000 tonnes)
– Options 109,370,500 tonnes(increase 18,721,200 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term neutral.