*RCF drags tender to a close*
RCF finally issued LOIs for its record 2.184mn tonne purchase of urea on Friday, after delaying twice during the week. As noted by Profercy, the tender also saw “the largest ever urea purchasing award to a single company, Ameropa, in India and worldwide, for 860,000mt”. Inclusive of RCF’s purchase, estimates for India’s import requirements range between 3.5-4mn tonnes and up to as much as 4.5mn tonnes before the end of the year (Acerto). As such, it is largely expected India will have to tender again this year, but unlikely before the end of November.
*AG/Egypt rangebound, Brazil softer and Nola on the rise*
AG urea paper seems to have found it’s level at $250 for December and into Q1, with if anything, more selling interest than buyers at that level this week. Egypt paper also continues to hover around $250 for end of Q4-Q1, with a new price move possible in the nearby, following results from Abu Qir’s tender which closed Tuesday. Activity on Brazil urea paper has been subdued, with Q4 expiries coming under pressure against limited buying interest – we see value there now in the low $260s. Nola urea meanwhile has firmed this week, with Feb trading up to $238 and March at $239 and bids also creeping up in nearby months as physical prices moved up a couple of dollars ($222 last done for Nov barges at time of writing). Calendar spreads also continue to be of interest in Nola, with positions being rolled from Nov/Dec into Jan/Feb at around $5-6/per month of contango.
*OCP requests extension on ITC hearing*
In the ongoing countervailing duty investigations in US phosphate markets, OCP is believed to have requested an extension of the deadline before which they have to respond. Here at FIS, we heard that a 7 day extension from the Nov 23rd deadline will be granted. In the interim, Mosaic has raised physical price targets in Nola up to $370 for December DAP barges and $390 for MAP. The jump in physical prices lent support to futures this week, with bids on Dec and Jan making their way above $340.