1. Florida – the sunny bellwether
Always a key state in the US election, this one is a ‘must-win’ for Trump. Its 29 Electoral College votes it could either be a platform for Trump to put together a winning campaign, or where it sinks at the first hurdle.
2. The Sun belt: Texas, Georgia, Arizona
It’s either going to be sunshine and rainbows for Biden across these states or the start of the storm clouds gathering. With Texas polling now bringing the usually solidly Republican state and its 38 Electoral College votes into contention, a win for the Democrats would also end Trump’s challenge. Rumblings of a Georgia flip to the Democrats could result in the Blue Wave commentators having a lot to discuss, while Arizona remains solidly in play (though we are unlikely to know the results by tomorrow). The Sun Belt remains another essential region for Trump to capture.
3. Ignore the exit polling
Due to the pandemic, a record number of people are pre-voting. It is estimated some 100 million people are going to be voting by post, with only some states able to count these before election day. With that in mind, the sample taken of people voting on the day is unlikely to be representative of the electorate as a whole and could be way off the end result.
4. Pennsylvania
A win here for Trump could cap off an historic electoral defence and be the cherry on the top of the GOP cake. A patchwork of swing states – including Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral College votes – will be key for Trump, just like in 2016, but a win for Biden would probably be the last nail in the coffin of Trumpism. Again, we are unlikely to have a final result here on the night.
5. Trump’s Twitter Feed
It wouldn’t be an election involving Donald Trump without having one eye on the Twittersphere. He has previously said that he would announce victory on the night if things were looking good, and you’re probably going to hear about it first from his Twitter. If things are close, you are also going to see the start of legal challenges to the result. If we get to that you might want to start brushing up on your 12th Amendment.