The Election count is dragging on leaving uncertainty in certain financial sectors. Equities are catching a bid whilst the USD continues to come under pressure, having produced a rejection candle yesterday. For iron ore the market is finding support having traded down to RMB 772 overnight. The offshore futures are seeing a similar pattern, a supported DCE contract and weak USD pushed the December contract up to USD 115.00 (+1.72%) before finishing the afternoon session at +.85% (USD 114.00). Uncertainty in the U.S. is keeping the iron ore futures in check, hopefully with some clarity due potentially tomorrow we could see the market decide on where it wants to go.
The Capesize has let me down having produced another negative day in the market with the December futures down 0.7% to USD 14,275, however the Q1 was up 0.3% to USD 7,975 and the Cal 21 up 0.5% to USD 13,050. Overall an inactive day.
The technical in the Panamax had been suggesting that we could see some form of upside move and this appears to have been the case with the futures seeing late buying interest on the close. Dec futures are up 2.9% to USD 9,650 with the Q1 at USD 8,050 + 2.2% and the Cal 21 at 9,550 +1.1%. seasonality would suggest that this move should be countertrend. We asked who would blink first and it appears to have been the market shorts.
Like the Panamax the Supramax remained supported during the day with the Dec Up 0.8% to USD 9,275, the Q1 21 up 1.3% to USD 7,675 and the Cal lagging a little behind at USD 8,925, +0.3%. The Panamax shorts look to be covering a bit at these levels and it looks like the market will be bid on the open, suggesting we could see Supramax offers pulling back as well.
Oil has been doing nothing more than following the intraday technical footprint today. We highlighted that it would make a new high on the bullish hidden divergence which it did. We also highlighted it would the produce a bearish divergence which has resulted in lower pricing into the close. However, downside moves could be limited with the Dollar index weakening suggesting the technical will only be able to do so much. It needs to correct but could end up in a holding pattern if the USD continues to disappoint.