Morning Oil Report 19/11/20

Brent crude futures gained 12 cents, or 0.3%, to $44.46 a barrel by 0733 GMT, after gaining 1.4% on the previous day.

 

The US looks to begin its holiday season, a time typically for driving around the country, but this year, it is expected that the pandemic will cut the number of journeys made by half, with demand for fuel at this busy period weaker than usual.

 

UK refiners push back on the news that a ban on selling fossil fuel cars past 2030, 5-years earlier than previously targeted, in a bid to decarbonize the industry. The move is set to displace 60,000 barrels per day of demand from the market. The move to bring forward to band on fossil fuel powered card brings the UK in line with other European countries, with Norway looking to phase out combustion-engine cars by 2025. (S&P Global Platts)

 

China has been the nation that is supporting the global crude market this year, offering a lifeline to global exporters as it mops up supply as demand has taken a hit since the coronavirus pandemic. Chinas imports are expected to reach 12 million barrels per day in 2021, although global supply is expected to fall by 9% in 2020. (Reuters)

 

OPEC+ has come under pressure as mounting disputes in the cartel have led to the idea that the Gulf producer may leave the cartel unless negotiations can resume and come to an outcome beneficial for all. It is still unclear as to whether the move is in response to failures in negotiations, or a genuine policy change. (Bloomberg)

 

Yesterday, crude stocks in the US rose by 768,000 barrels in the week ending 13th November, bullish news as analysts had predicted a build of over 1.7 million barrels. (Reuters)

 

 

 

INDEX: (MTD Estimates)

* Sing 380: 266.15

* Rott 3.5%: 247.10

* Sing 0.5%: 329.23

* Rott 0.5%: 307.81

 

MARKETS NEWS:
* Pandemic Thanksgiving Means About Half as Much Driving This Year
* Saudi Energy Minister: Jury Is Out on Extending OPEC+ Oil Cuts
* Cushing Crude Stockpiles Rise to Highest Since May: TOPLive
* SK Buys U.S. Eagleford, Canadian Cold Lake Crude for February
* China’s Implied Crude Inventory Shows 1st Drawdown Since 2017
* Asia’s High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Timespread Trades Near 9-Month High
* European Road Use Continues to Fall as Virus Restrictions Hit
* Italy’s Oil Product Sales Weaken in October, Slumping 13% Y/y

OTHER NEWS:
* Oil Search to Start Sale Process for 15% Stake in Alaska Project
* ConocoPhillips Weighed Three-Way Merger Prior to Concho Deal
* India Denies Report That State-Run Oil Firms May Bid for BPCL
* Biggest in Oil, Saudis Aim Next to Be Largest Hydrogen Exporter
* Gulf Oil Lease Sale Draws $121 Million in Pre-Biden Auction

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Thanksgiving Driving Could Fall By Half
* EUROPE: Grandpuits Shuts CDU; Mol Diesel Tender
* Fuel Stocks Rise to Six-Week High at Middle Eastern Oil Hub
* ASIA: Clean Fuels in Storage; Wepec Offers Gasoil

ECONOMIC EVENTS:
* RBC Midstream and Energy Infrastructure Conference, day 2
* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data
* Insights Global weekly report on European refined product inventories in ARA region

ANALYST VIEWS:
* Oil Poised to Trade in Upper Range on Vaccine Sentiment: Citi
* Goldman Says Buy Bullish Options on Energy Ahead of OPEC Meeting
* Shipping’s Emissions Set to Rise Despite Efficiency Gains: Study

(Data and News FIS + Bloomberg)

 

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC                                 

Dec20    252.50   /             254.50

Jan21     252.25   /             254.25

Feb21    251.75   /             253.75

Mar21   251.25   /             253.25

Apr21    250.50   /             252.50

May21  249.50   /             251.50

Q1-21    251.75   /             253.75

Q2-21    249.50   /             251.50

Q3-21    246.00   /             248.00

Q4-21    241.75   /             244.75

CAL21    247.00   /             250.00

 

Singapore 380 INDIC                                     

Dec20    273.25   /             275.25

Jan21     269.25   /              271.25

Feb21    267.25   /             269.25

Mar21   266.00   /             268.00

Apr21    265.00   /             267.00

May21  264.00   /             266.00

Q1-21    267.50   /             269.50

Q2-21    264.00   /             266.00

Q3-21    261.50   /             263.50

Q4-21    259.50   /             262.50

CAL21    263.25   /             266.25

 

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC

Dec20    320.00   /              325.00

Jan21     320.00   /              325.00

Feb21    320.50   /              325.50

Mar21   321.00   /              326.00

Apr21    321.50   /              326.50

May21  322.25   /              327.25

Q1-21    320.50   /              325.50

Q2-21    322.25   /              327.25

Q3-21    324.00   /              330.00

Q4-21    326.25   /              332.25

CAL21    323.00   /              329.00

 

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                     

Dec20    345.00   /              350.00

Jan21     342.50   /              347.50

Feb21    341.25   /              346.25

Mar21   340.50   /              345.50

Apr21    340.50   /              345.50

May21  340.75   /              345.75

Q1-21    341.25   /              346.25

Q2-21    340.75   /              345.75

Q3-21    342.25   /              348.25

Q4-21    344.50   /              350.50

CAL21    342.00   /              348.00

 

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC                                   

Dec20    49.05     /              49.19

Jan21     49.10     /              49.30

Feb21    49.35     /              49.55

Mar21   49.69     /              49.89

Apr21    50.03     /              50.23

May21  50.36     /              50.56

Q1-21    49.40     /              49.60

Q2-21    50.36     /              50.56

Q3-21    51.46     /              51.66

Q4-21    52.25     /              52.45

CAL21    50.76     /              51.16

 

ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC                               

Dec20    362.45   /              364.45

Jan21     366.48   /              368.48

Feb21    370.06   /              372.06

Mar21   372.73   /              374.73

Apr21    375.75   /              377.75

May21  378.63   /              380.63

Q1-21    369.75   /              371.75

Q2-21    378.64   /              380.64

Q3-21    386.77   /              388.77

Q4-21    393.49   /              395.49

CAL21    382.17   /              384.17

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