*MEG Eases her Tensions*
This year has seen numerous ‘events’ between the U.S. and Iran regarding tankers and Venezuelan oil. With tensions between all a rollercoaster journey, you could say it’s been an ‘interesting’ year for geopolitics in the Middle Eastern Gulf.
Within just the last few months we have seen various displays of force on the water;
- Initially seeing the Iranian Navy using a mock-US Naval vessel as target practice for war games
- Then we saw the U.S. Department of Justice seize a host of websites that were ‘alleged front companies’ used by Iran to arrange under-cover shipments of oil products to Venezuela
- The U.S. then went on to seize 4 tankers worth of Iranian gasoline ~ 1.2mmbl worth an estimated $55m, the seizure being in line with the US sanctions against Tehran and Venezuelan oil trade
- Iran then denied involvement in the above point, forcibly boarded an unrelated ship and then went on to say the cargoes had in-fact been loaded in Iranian ports
- We then saw a Trio of Iranian tankers on route to Venezuela turning off their AIS, completing this ‘undercover’ voyage without U.S. intervention
Since then, no major political news relating to tankers between the two countries has been reported, in-fact, US Navy Top official, 5th Fleet commander Vice Admiral Sam Paparo has stated he has a ‘healthy respect’ for Iranian Naval Forces on the water in the Middle Eastern Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Going on to say they’ve reached an uneasy deterrence after a generally calmer year in the regional waters. With the U.S. Navy now stating they recognising both the Iranian Navy and Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy as respectful and professional forces. Vice Admiral Paparo concluded his speech “I have found Iranian activity at sea to be cautious and circumspect and respectful, to not risk unnecessary miscalculation or escalation at sea.”
This news statement coincides with the timing of one of Presidents Donald Trump’s last military orders to pull U.S. troops out of the Middle East to deter potential further attacks by Iran. As troops are being pulled from the soil the imposing Nimitz strike force Naval fleet stays on the water. Perhaps Vice Admirals Sam Paparo statement above is hoping to reduce the imposing nature of the Nimitz fleet, which still acts as a deterrence in the region, by way of easing tensions and increasing mutual respect on the water as boots leave the ground.
Hopefully, this region of the world so crucial to global trade stays sedated allowing for the smooth functioning of shipping in the area. With increasing stability in the region this brings confidence to all, not only do owners feel safer about their vessels but AWRP (Additional War Risk Premiums) should see a reduction, lowering costs for charterers. As with all things, less war and less violence make a safer and more pleasant environment for all. (sources Tradewinds, ISS, Independent, NavyTimes)