AG UREA
Despite the break, we saw relatively steady two-way interest on the nearby expiry for AG paper, with buyers and sellers both jockeying around 270 value for the January contract. Trading eventually occurred at that level, on the back of spreads. Conviction further out the curve has been slightly lower, although we see the curve relatively flat for Q1.
EGYPT UREA
Paper values continued to move up, on the back of physical market momentum. The holidays saw bids move up gradually against limited selling interest, until Feb finally traded, at 283, for its first print. Sentiment remains positive throughout Q1, with the physical market showing little reason for values to drop off.
BRAZIL UREA
As with Egyptian values, Brazil urea paper continued to increase over the break, however wasn’t heard to have traded. Physical trading was reported in the vicinity of 290, and as a result buying interest has been seen on January paper in the low/mid 280s. As with AG, focus remains on the nearby contract, with conviction dropping off throughout the quarter.
BRAZIL MAP
Interest/activity in Brazil MAP slowed over the holidays, following strong buying interest in the period leading up to Christmas. This was attributed to both a slowdown in the physical market as well as the amendment to preliminary duties facing OCP in the US, which had participants reassessing the next market direction.
NOLA UREA
Nola urea values have continued to edge up, on fragmented activity over the break. Q1 seems to have found a new trading level around 260, with both Feb and March trading at/around this value, and March reaching as high as 261.
NOLA DAP
Sentiment on DAP futures appears to be meeting some headwinds. The Feb contract traded in line with its last done level at 388 over the break, however, despite motivated selling interest further out the curve for Mar/Apr, bids remained thin and no trades occurred.
NOLA UAN
Nola UAN saw two-way interest across the curve, out to April over the holidays. Bid/offer spreads remained wide however, except in the nearby contract where January was closely framed for most of the break. New Year’s Eve saw January finally transact, at 132. The curve remains in strong contango throughout Q1, with values steadily moving up across the expiries to April, where value remains in the mid-150s