Brent crude climbed 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $54.51 a barrel by 0531 GMT before hitting levels of just under $54.84 at 0700GMT. It touched $54.90 on Thursday, the highest since February. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 14 cents, or 0.3%, to $50.97. The contract closed up 0.4% on Thursday after also hitting its highest since February at $51.28.
The key support for these sustained prices in the market at present are the voluntary Saudi cuts to the tune of 1 million barrels per day in both February and March, saying that it will limit its February and March crude production to 8.119 million b/d, well below its quota of 9.119 million b/d, as the UK has announced that it will be in a national lockdown until this time, Quebec is the latest country to impose curfew restrictions as many western countries struggle to get the Virus under control. Both Benchmarks are up 5% on the week as the first week of the year comes to an end.
Analysts at Nissan securities have warned that we may be on track for a correction as the current rally does not reflect the state of expected fuel demand in the coming months. However, UBS raised its forecast for Brent to $60 per barrel by mid-year, following Saudi Arabia’s unilateral cut and expectations of a sharp recovery in demand in the second quarter as coronavirus vaccine rollouts revived travel. (Reuters)
INDEX: (MTD Estimates)
* Sing 380: 315.05
* Rott 3.5%: 299.63
* Sing 0.5%: 409.18
* Rott 0.5%: 381.44
MARKETS NEWS:
* Exporting the U.S. Shale Boom Has Changed Oil Markets Forever
* Petrobras Oil Output Hits Record as Most Peers Reel From Crash
* U.S. Drivers Paying Most at the Pump Since the Pandemic
* European Air Travel, Crushed by Covid, Faces Fresh Lockdowns Hit
* Libya to Ship Five Cargoes of Brega Crude in February: Program
* Mideast’s Oil Supertanker Surplus Set to Rise to Three-Week High
* Transatlantic Oil Product Tanker Rates Surge by Almost 20%
OTHER NEWS:
* Norway’s Bosoni is First Woman to Head IEA’s Oil Market Division
* Saudi Prince Hits a New Year Reset by Making Allies Not Enemies
* Beijing’s Coldest Spell Since 1966 is Spurring Energy Prices
* Western Japan Running Out of Power Reserves as Cold Snap Bites
* Soaring Shipping Costs Could Curb China’s Export Boom
* BP Reopens Sale of Oil Field Stakes in the North Sea: Reuters
* Malaysia Delays B20 Biodiesel Plan to 2022 to Focus on Economy
OIL PRODUCT WRAPS:
* U.S.: Pump Gasoline Rising as Airfares Are Falling
* EUROPE: India Shipping Less; Trafi Deal; Exxon FCC
* ASIA: Middle Distillates Stockpiles at 4-Month Low
ECONOMIC DATA: (Times are London)
* 6pm: Baker Hughes weekly rig count,
* 6.30pm: ICE Brent positions
* 8.30pm: CFTC
* BTC Azeri crude oil loading program for February
ANALYST VIEWS/COLUMNS:
* Gasoline Demand Drop of 5.6% Likely Under Biden: Morgan Stanley
* Saudi Arabia’s Big Oil Cut Is Cheaper Than You Think: Julian Lee
* OIL MKT RESEARCH: UBS Sees Brent at $60 by Mid-2021; Indexes
* Naphtha Cracker Margin May Have Peaked on Massive Supply Wave
OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Asian Stocks Follow U.S. Higher; Bond Yields Climb: Markets Wrap
*Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC*
Feb21 311.25 / 313.25
Mar21 309.75 / 311.75
Apr21 307.00 / 309.00
May21 303.75 / 305.75
Jun21 300.50 / 302.50
Jul21 297.25 / 299.25
Q2-21 303.75 / 305.75
Q3-21 293.75 / 295.75
Q4-21 283.75 / 285.75
Q1-22 277.50 / 280.50
CAL22 267.75 / 273.75
*Singapore 380 INDIC*
Feb21 326.50 / 328.50
Mar21 326.00 / 328.00
Apr21 323.75 / 325.75
May21 321.25 / 323.25
Jun21 318.75 / 320.75
Jul21 316.25 / 318.25
Q2-21 321.25 / 323.25
Q3-21 313.50 / 315.50
Q4-21 306.00 / 308.00
Q1-22 300.00 / 303.00
CAL22 289.00 / 295.00
*Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Feb21 388.75 / 393.75
Mar21 387.50 / 392.50
Apr21 386.75 / 391.75
May21 386.00 / 391.00
Jun21 385.25 / 390.25
Jul21 384.50 / 389.50
Q2-21 386.00 / 391.00
Q3-21 383.75 / 388.75
Q4-21 381.00 / 387.00
Q1-22 379.00 / 387.00
CAL22 381.75 / 389.75
*Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Feb21 411.00 / 416.00
Mar21 409.50 / 414.50
Apr21 408.50 / 413.50
May21 407.50 / 412.50
Jun21 406.50 / 411.50
Jul21 405.50 / 410.50
Q2-21 407.50 / 412.50
Q3-21 405.00 / 410.00
Q4-21 403.25 / 409.25
Q1-22 402.00 / 410.00
CAL22 405.00 / 413.00
*Sing 10ppm GO INDIC*
Feb21 59.16 / 59.30
Mar21 59.30 / 59.50
Apr21 59.39 / 59.59
May21 59.30 / 59.50
Jun21 59.35 / 59.55
Jul21 59.48 / 59.68
Q2-21 59.30 / 59.60
Q3-21 59.54 / 59.84
Q4-21 59.67 / 59.97
Q1-22 59.95 / 60.25
CAL22 59.41 / 59.81
*ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC*
Feb21 443.05 / 445.05
Mar21 443.05 / 445.05
Apr21 444.78 / 446.78
May21 445.70 / 447.70
Jun21 446.41 / 448.41
Jul21 447.38 / 449.38
Q2-21 445.65 / 447.65
Q3-21 448.27 / 450.27
Q4-21 450.28 / 452.28
Q1-22 448.73 / 450.73
CAL22 447.27 / 449.27
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