Ferrous Market
– MySteel 45 ports iron ore inventories at 125.01 million tonnes, up 625,100 tonnes w-o-w. Daily evacuation 3.04 million tonnes, down 146,900 tonnes w-o-w. Australia iron ore 58.26 million tonnes, up 705,000 tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore 43.71 million tonnes, up 109,200 tonnes w-o-w. 201 ships at ports, up 23.
– MySteel 14 EAFs construction steel average cost 4169 yuan/tonne, up 8 yuan/tonne, profit 15 yuan/tonne, down 25 yuan/tonne w-o-w.
– FMG Q4 iron ore delivery 46.4 million tones, up 5% from Q3, unchanged from last Q4. Year 2020 total delivery at 180.3 million tones, up 4% y-o-y.
– Anglo American iron ore target production 64- 67 million tones, including Kumba production target at 40-41 million tones, and Minas-Rio production target at 24 – 26 million tones.
– Arcelor Mittal would restart No.2 Blast Furnance with annual production of 5 million tones of steels. No.2 Furnace had been closed since last year when Covid-19 broke out.
Macro
– China Security Regulation Commission Conference said to complete investment market mechanism with less external interference. Increase the innovation on investment. Control the leverage ratio of the market.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest(Jan 28th)
– Futures 87,801,600 tonnes(increase 865,700 tonnes)
– Options 50,908,200 tonnes(increase 789,000 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term neutral to bearish.
