Brent crude fell 40 cents, or 0.7%, to $61.07 a barrel, as of 0350 GMT, after touching its highest since January 2020 on Wednesday, after a strong run in recent days driven by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed output cuts and vaccine rollouts fired up hopes of a recovery in demand. U.S. crude slid 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $58.33 a barrel.
EIA week ending 2/5
Crude oil: -6.6M
Gasoline: +4.3M
Distillates: -1.7M
Refiner utilz: 83.0%
Impld mogas demand: 7.86 Mbpd
Crude stocks were down yesterday by over six million barrels, but the key take-home point yesterday was the weakening demand for gasoline as there was a four-million-barrel build in stocks, a key determinant in overall demand of the fuel complex. The bullish sentiment in the crude market crude with the inventory draw ensure stocks were their lowest level since March 2020, but this was curtailed as gasoline stocks continue to rise as consumer demand for domestic travel is still lacklustre due to pandemic restrictions. There also remains the risk that the current supply discipline from OPEC may be breached as suppliers are keen to take advantage of higher prices, which in turn may cause a fall in oil prices. (S&P Global Platts)
Another factor to bear in mind will be that supply from Libya may start to slowly increase as the month-long strike as some key ports are coming to an ends today. This comes as a 10-month blockade on all oil exports in the region in 2020 saw supply drop substantially, only to ramp up to 1 million barrels per day of production by the end of November.
With European 0.5%S marine fuel and 1%S fuel oil markets seeing support from ongoing buying from the East amid thin supply and high sulfur (3.5%S) fuel oil seeing little demand, the Hi-5 spread hit a fresh 10-month high. The Hi-5 – the spread between FOB Rotterdam 0.5%S fuel oil barges and FOB Rotterdam HSFO barges hit $111.75/mt on Feb. 9, S&P Global Platts data showed, its highest since March 23 2020. Cal22 traded at $120 in the mkt yesterday. (S&P Global Platts)
INDEX: (MTD Estimates)
* Sing 380: 346.95
* Rott 3.5%: 332.72
* Sing 0.5%: 465.82
* Rott 0.5%: 436.22
MARKETS NEWS:
* Saudis Supply Full March Oil Volumes to 8 in Asia; Cuts Some
* Libya’s Hariga Oil Port Reopens as Guards End Monthlong Strike
* Cold Snap Gives Oil Rebound a Boost With Run for Heating Fuel
* U.S. Crude Inventory Falls to Lowest Since March: EIA Takeaways
* Arctic Blast Drives Strongest Propane Demand in 17 Years
* WTI Technicals Flash a Warning as Crude Flirts With $60: Chart
* OIL DEMAND MONITOR: China Air Traffic Drops on Holiday Curbs
OTHER NEWS:
* Biden, in Call With Xi, Talks of ‘Unfair Economic Practices’
* Court Lets U.S. Government Sell Seized Oil Thought to Be Iranian
* New Mexico Oil Chief Warns of Confusion On Drilling Approvals
* Shale Rig Owner Touts New Price Model as Drilling Speeds Up
OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Industry Getting Handle on Jet Fuel Inventory
* EUROPE: EGPC Tenders; NYC-Bound Gasoline Diverts
* ASIA: Naphtha Tightens in Asia; Exxon Closes Altona
ECONOMIC DATA/EVENTS: (Times are London)
* IEA publishes monthly Oil Market Report
* OPEC publishes Monthly Oil Market Report
* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data
* Russian weekly refinery outage data from ministry
* Insights Global weekly oil product inventory data for Eurpoe’s ARA region
* Caspian CPC Blend crude loading program for March
* EARNINGS: Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., Oil India Ltd.
* HOLIDAYS: China, Japan, South Korea
ANALYST VIEWS/COLUMNS:
* JPMorgan Says Commodities May Have Just Begun a New Supercycle
* OPEC to Regain 35% of Crude Market Share by End of the Year: DB
* Brent Crude Likely to Hit $70 by Year-End, Citigroup Says
* Asian Gasoil Margins Likely to Stay Below $10/bbl in 2021: FGE
* Strong OPEC+ Compliance Adds Fuel to Oil Market Optimism: BNEF
*Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC*
Mar21 339.75 / 341.75
Apr21 339.25 / 341.25
May21 337.25 / 339.25
Jun21 334.00 / 336.00
Jul21 330.25 / 332.25
Aug21 326.00 / 328.00
Q2-21 337.00 / 339.00
Q3-21 325.75 / 327.75
Q4-21 311.00 / 313.00
Q1-22 302.50 / 305.50
CAL22 292.25 / 298.25
*Singapore 380 INDIC*
Mar21 355.50 / 357.50
Apr21 354.25 / 356.25
May21 352.25 / 354.25
Jun21 349.25 / 351.25
Jul21 346.25 / 348.25
Aug21 343.00 / 345.00
Q2-21 352.00 / 354.00
Q3-21 342.75 / 344.75
Q4-21 331.75 / 333.75
Q1-22 324.00 / 327.00
CAL22 311.75 / 317.75
*Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Mar21 446.25 / 451.25
Apr21 442.50 / 447.50
May21 439.25 / 444.25
Jun21 436.25 / 441.25
Jul21 433.50 / 438.50
Aug21 431.00 / 436.00
Q2-21 439.25 / 444.25
Q3-21 431.00 / 436.00
Q4-21 423.00 / 429.00
Q1-22 417.25 / 425.25
CAL22 408.25 / 416.25
**Sing 10ppm GO INDIC**
Mar21 67.22 / 67.36
Apr21 67.00 / 67.20
May21 66.82 / 67.02
Jun21 66.65 / 66.85
Jul21 66.51 / 66.71
Aug21 66.39 / 66.59
Q2-21 66.75 / 67.05
Q3-21 66.34 / 66.64
Q4-21 65.88 / 66.18
Q1-22 65.36 / 65.66
CAL22 64.90 / 65.30
*ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC*
Mar21 499.57 / 501.57
Apr21 500.23 / 502.23
May21 500.04 / 502.04
Jun21 499.79 / 501.79
Jul21 499.66 / 501.66
Aug21 499.47 / 501.47
Q2-21 500.00 / 502.00
Q3-21 499.59 / 501.59
Q4-21 497.39 / 499.39
Q1-22 497.54 / 499.54
CAL22 495.88 / 497.88
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