At 10:50 am Singapore time (0250 GMT), the ICE Brent June contract had slipped 8 cents/b (0.12%) from the April 23 settle at $66.03/b, while the June NYMEX light sweet crude contract was 2 cents/b (0.03%) higher at $62.16/b.
Coronavirus cases in India are continuing to rise and the story has dominated the news headlines over the weekend with the nation recording four consecutive days of record numbers of cases as a lack of ventilators and oxygen are plaguing the country as it looks to seek help from others to address the critically low levels of respiratory aids. Case counts reached nearly 350,000 in a single 24-hour period over the weekend, with one of the largest consumers of oil putting cities back into lockdowns to control the spread of the new variants.
The precarious situation in India will be on the minds of the OPEC+ panel who are due to meet on 28th April. The full meeting due on Wednesday is interesting timing as production quotas have already been set for the next 3 months.
As the last week of April comes, the oil market awaits the extra supply that is due to enter the frame as a result of the OPEC+ meeting at the start of April that announced the phasing back in of the cuts made in the previous 6 months to try and balance the market. This will be accompanied by the phasing in of the 1 million barrel a day cuts made by Saudi Arabia from February, but analysts at the time of the meeting modelled that the market should be in a position to absorb the extra supply contingent on the fact that the virus prevalence continues to fall, and with the situation in India worsening, time will tell.
In fuel oil, demand for high sulphur fuel may dip over the next few weeks as lower power consumption is predicted as a result of the holiday Eid al-Fitr mid-month causing refiners to slowdown run rates or even shut as a result of the festival. The largest consumer of HSFO- Bangladesh is expected to import 20% less HSFO in May than in April. (S&P Global Platts)
INDEX: (MTD Estimates)
* Sing 380: 366.12
* Rott 3.5%: 353.27
* Sing 0.5%: 478.45
* Rott 0.5%: 456.93
*Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC*
May21 358.00 / 360.00
Jun21 357.00 / 359.00
Jul21 354.00 / 356.00
Aug21 350.25 / 352.25
Sep21 345.25 / 347.25
Oct21 339.50 / 341.50
Q3-21 349.75 / 351.75
Q4-21 335.25 / 337.25
Q1-22 327.50 / 329.50
Q2-22 322.25 / 325.25
CAL22 318.75 / 324.75
*Singapore 380 INDIC*
May21 369.75 / 371.75
Jun21 369.00 / 371.00
Jul21 367.00 / 369.00
Aug21 363.75 / 365.75
Sep21 360.00 / 362.00
Oct21 355.75 / 357.75
Q3-21 363.50 / 365.50
Q4-21 352.75 / 354.75
Q1-22 346.50 / 348.50
Q2-22 341.00 / 344.00
CAL22 338.25 / 344.25
*Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
May21 456.25 / 461.25
Jun21 455.50 / 460.50
Jul21 454.75 / 459.75
Aug21 453.75 / 458.75
Sep21 452.75 / 457.75
Oct21 451.75 / 456.75
Q3-21 453.75 / 458.75
Q4-21 450.50 / 455.50
Q1-22 446.25 / 452.25
Q2-22 441.25 / 449.25
CAL22 439.00 / 447.00
*Sing VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
May21 476.75 / 481.75
Jun21 476.00 / 481.00
Jul21 475.25 / 480.25
Aug21 474.50 / 479.50
Sep21 473.75 / 478.75
Oct21 473.25 / 478.25
Q3-21 474.50 / 479.50
Q4-21 472.50 / 477.50
Q1-22 469.00 / 475.00
Q2-22 464.50 / 472.50
CAL22 462.25 / 470.25
*Sing 10ppm GO INDIC*
May21 69.26 / 69.40
Jun21 69.38 / 69.58
Jul21 69.46 / 69.66
Aug21 69.51 / 69.71
Sep21 69.54 / 69.74
Oct21 69.53 / 69.73
Q3-21 69.45 / 69.75
Q4-21 69.31 / 69.61
Q1-22 69.08 / 69.38
Q2-22 68.82 / 69.12
CAL22 68.65 / 69.05
*ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC*
May21 519.77 / 523.77
Jun21 521.63 / 525.63
Jul21 522.96 / 526.96
Aug21 524.23 / 528.23
Sep21 525.48 / 529.48
Oct21 525.48 / 529.48
Q3-21 524.20 / 528.20
Q4-21 524.65 / 528.65
Q1-22 523.43 / 527.43
Q2-22 519.87 / 523.87
CAL22 521.48 / 525.48
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