Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
· Iron ore short-run neutral.
Macro
· China National Bureau of Statistics: Jan-Apr electric power generation 2.53 trillion kwh, up 16.8% y-o-y, up 10.9% compared to the year 2019.
· China April above scale industry realised added value growth rate 9.8%, last 14.1%, est. 9.8%.
· Jan -Apr, China National Real Estate Development Investment was 4024 billion yuan, up 21.6% y-o-y; 17.6% higher than same period in 2019. The residential investment was 3016.2 billion yuan, an increase of 24.4%.
· National Bureau of Statistics: Jan- Apr, China’s fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 14380.4 billion yuan, up 19.9% year on year; It is 8.0% higher than that of January to April in 2019, with an average growth of 3.9% in two years. Among them, private investment in fixed assets was 8251.9 billion yuan, up 21.0% year on year. On a month on month basis, investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 1.49% in April.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
· Platts62 $209.35, -23.75, MTD $209.46. PBF traded at Platts Jun + $8.35 premium, significantly higher than previous premium at $6.5, indicating seaborne market priorly price in the index was oversold on last Friday. Thus, lower index created some room for higher premium, since buying float base was safer compared to fix price in particular expecting price correction phase.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (May 14th)
· Futures 83,205,200 tonnes(Decrease 123,200 tonnes)
· Options 83,205,200 tonnes(Increase 387,300 tonnes)
Steel Key Indicators
· Steelbank construction steels city inventories 6.3988 million tonnes, down 7.92% w-o-w. HRC inventory 2.4603 million tonnes, up 4.68% w-o-w.
· Results of the world’s five largest steel enterprises Q1: ArcelorMittal EBITDA $3.2 billion. POSCO made a consolidated profit of 1138.8 billion won (about 1.029 billion US dollars). India Tata Group’s combined crude steel output is 8.2 million tons, and the combined EBITDA is 14.29 billion rupees (about 194 million US dollars). The combined net profit of Newco steel reached US $942 million, the highest quarterly record since the company was founded. Swedish Steel’s EBITDA was kroner 2.860 billion (about US $343 million).
Coal Indicators
· Some users in Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Chaozhou and other places in China Guangdong Province are required to stagger their peak electricity load.
