At 11:39 am Singapore time (0339 GMT), the ICE Brent July contract was up 50 cents/b (0.75%) from the May 21 settle at $66.94/b, while the July NYMEX light sweet crude contract was up 60 cents/b (0.94%) at $64.18/b.
Last week saw a dramatic decline for the brent front month futures as a result of headlines filtering through of a nuclear deal that was close to being reached by Iran which was looking likely to signal the return of supplies from the nation years after sanctions had been applied by the US administration before Biden. As many at 4 million barrels per day could enter the market in as little as three months. Both the US and European benchmarks suffered their worst week in over a month as the potential of more supply in what many judge to be a fragile market with the uncertainty surrounding the India variant keeping oil market participants wary.
ICE Brent saw its largest weekly decline since March, falling by 3.3% last week, while time spreads have also weakened, with the prompt spread also at its lowest levels since March, trading in a backwardation of just US$0.07/bbl. The latest positioning data shows that speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent by 9,833 lots over the last reporting week, to leave them with a net long of 286,000 lots as of last Tuesday. Gross shorts increased by 5,710 lots and gross longs fell by 4,123 lots over the week. (ING)
Supporting oil over the weekend was the first tropical named storm of the year Ana on May 22nd, but has since been downgraded to a tropical depression. Last week forecasters had suggested that there may be a 60% chance of above normal activity for the this years hurricane season which has seen the market price in a hurricane premium according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (S&P Global Platts)
INDEX: (MTD Estimates)
* Sing 380: 373.31
* Rott 3.5%: 364.25
* Sing 0.5%: 486.63
* Rott 0.5%: 473.89
*Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC*
Jun21 349.50 / 351.50
Jul21 349.25 / 351.25
Aug21 347.50 / 349.50
Sep21 344.50 / 346.50
Oct21 340.75 / 342.75
Nov21 337.25 / 339.25
Q3-21 347.25 / 349.25
Q4-21 337.50 / 339.50
Q1-22 332.25 / 334.25
Q2-22 328.50 / 331.50
CAL22 326.75 / 332.75
*Singapore 380 INDIC*
Jun21 356.00 / 358.00
Jul21 357.75 / 359.75
Aug21 358.00 / 360.00
Sep21 356.75 / 358.75
Oct21 354.50 / 356.50
Nov21 352.50 / 354.50
Q3-21 357.50 / 359.50
Q4-21 352.75 / 354.75
Q1-22 349.00 / 351.00
Q2-22 345.25 / 348.25
CAL22 344.25 / 350.25
*Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Jun21 457.25 / 462.25
Jul21 457.25 / 462.25
Aug21 457.25 / 462.25
Sep21 457.25 / 462.25
Oct21 457.00 / 462.00
Nov21 456.50 / 461.50
Q3-21 457.25 / 462.25
Q4-21 456.50 / 461.50
Q1-22 453.50 / 459.50
Q2-22 449.00 / 457.00
CAL22 446.50 / 454.50
*Sing VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Jun21 472.50 / 477.50
Jul21 474.75 / 479.75
Aug21 476.25 / 481.25
Sep21 477.00 / 482.00
Oct21 477.50 / 482.50
Nov21 477.50 / 482.50
Q3-21 476.00 / 481.00
Q4-21 477.50 / 482.50
Q1-22 475.75 / 481.75
Q2-22 471.75 / 479.75
CAL22 468.75 / 476.75
*Sing 10ppm GO INDIC*
Jun21 73.13 / 73.27
Jul21 73.02 / 73.22
Aug21 72.92 / 73.12
Sep21 72.84 / 73.04
Oct21 72.74 / 72.94
Nov21 72.54 / 72.74
Q3-21 72.90 / 73.20
Q4-21 72.47 / 72.77
Q1-22 71.88 / 72.18
Q2-22 71.49 / 71.79
CAL22 71.35 / 71.75
*ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC*
Jun21 548.38 / 552.38
Jul21 549.56 / 553.56
Aug21 550.47 / 554.47
Sep21 551.39 / 555.39
Oct21 550.81 / 554.81
Nov21 548.54 / 552.54
Q3-21 550.45 / 554.45
Q4-21 548.86 / 552.86
Q1-22 545.66 / 549.66
Q2-22 540.90 / 544.90
CAL22 540.51 / 544.51
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