Brent crude fell 44 cents, or 0.6%, to $68.43 a barrel at 0220 GMT, erasing Wednesday’s gain of 22 cents. Brent has traded between $68 and $69 for most of this week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 43 cents, or 0.7%, to $65.78 a barrel, after a rise of 14 cents on Wednesday, but still in the $65-$66 range it has been this week.
EIA week ending 5/21
Crude oil: -1.7M
Gasoline: -1.7M
Distillates: -3.0M
Refiner utilz: 87.0%
Impld mogas demand: 9.48 Mbpd
EIA figures released yesterday afternoon proved to be constructive across the board with draws on crude and products last week as refinery utilisation edged up too. All positive news as the US economy begins to get back up and running following lockdowns. Imports of crude lowered and exports increased as global appetite for oil seems to be on its way back, with Goldman Sachs pointing out that demand for oil will jump by its highest ever level over the summer months and into autumn.
The one caveat to this is the increasing case count in Asian countries who have now seen rapid rise in the Indian variant which although may not be as harmful as first thought, is most likely more transmissible which has led to tighter restrictions across the continent.
Oil prices are still holding firm over the short term as the premise of Iranian supply to the market is still uncertain as the nuclear deal is still yet to be confirmed with all the terms and conditions. The next OPEC meeting will be on the first of June and the focus will be the changing supply dynamics from Iran, to which Russia are looking unlikely to reduce output in order to compensate. Citi predicted OPEC+ would stick to plans to bring back 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply in June, but the group’s plan to step up supply by a further 840,000 bpd in July “might now be in question”. Analysts said any increase of supply from Iran would only be gradual, with JPMorgan estimating Iran could add 500,000 bpd by the end of this year and a further 500,000 bpd by August 2022. (Reuters)
INDEX: (MTD Estimates)
* Sing 380: 371.62
* Rott 3.5%: 363.85
* Sing 0.5%: 485.56
* Rott 0.5%: 473.38
*Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC*
Jun21 363.25 / 365.25
Jul21 362.75 / 364.75
Aug21 360.50 / 362.50
Sep21 356.75 / 358.75
Oct21 352.50 / 354.50
Nov21 348.50 / 350.50
Q3-21 360.00 / 362.00
Q4-21 348.75 / 350.75
Q1-22 342.75 / 344.75
Q2-22 338.25 / 341.25
CAL22 333.25 / 339.25
*Singapore 380 INDIC*
Jun21 368.25 / 370.25
Jul21 370.00 / 372.00
Aug21 370.00 / 372.00
Sep21 368.75 / 370.75
Oct21 366.50 / 368.50
Nov21 364.50 / 366.50
Q3-21 369.50 / 371.50
Q4-21 364.50 / 366.50
Q1-22 360.50 / 362.50
Q2-22 356.25 / 359.25
CAL22 350.25 / 356.25
*Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Jun21 468.50 / 473.50
Jul21 467.25 / 472.25
Aug21 466.50 / 471.50
Sep21 466.00 / 471.00
Oct21 465.50 / 470.50
Nov21 465.00 / 470.00
Q3-21 466.50 / 471.50
Q4-21 464.75 / 469.75
Q1-22 462.25 / 468.25
Q2-22 458.25 / 466.25
CAL22 456.00 / 464.00
*Sing VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Jun21 481.50 / 486.50
Jul21 484.00 / 489.00
Aug21 485.50 / 490.50
Sep21 486.50 / 491.50
Oct21 487.00 / 492.00
Nov21 487.00 / 492.00
Q3-21 485.25 / 490.25
Q4-21 486.75 / 491.75
Q1-22 485.00 / 491.00
Q2-22 481.00 / 489.00
CAL22 478.25 / 486.25
*Sing 10ppm GO INDIC*
Jun21 74.56 / 74.70
Jul21 74.43 / 74.63
Aug21 74.34 / 74.54
Sep21 74.28 / 74.48
Oct21 74.17 / 74.37
Nov21 73.95 / 74.15
Q3-21 74.30 / 74.60
Q4-21 73.89 / 74.19
Q1-22 73.26 / 73.56
Q2-22 72.77 / 73.07
CAL22 72.59 / 72.99
*ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC*
Jun21 558.54 / 562.54
Jul21 560.06 / 564.06
Aug21 561.10 / 565.10
Sep21 561.93 / 565.93
Oct21 561.40 / 565.40
Nov21 559.17 / 563.17
Q3-21 561.05 / 565.05
Q4-21 559.45 / 563.45
Q1-22 555.88 / 559.88
Q2-22 551.29 / 555.29
CAL22 551.89 / 555.89
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