Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
· Iron ore short-run neutral to bearish.
Macro
· China Caixin PMI 51.3, estimate 51.8, last 52.
· IMF predicted U.S. inflation rate will keep above 2%. IMF also predicted U.S. federal will increase interest rate from the end of year 2022 to early 2023.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
· Platts62 $218.80, +0.4, MTD $218.8。
· Cleveland-Cliffs plan to close No.7 blast furnace and extend maintenance. The blast furnace with annual capacity of 4.2 million tones. The maintenance will equal to a daily pig iron decrease of 12,700 tonnes during the end of Q3 and early Q4.
· MySteel 45 ports iron ore inventories at 122.35 million tonnes, up 589,500 tonnes w-o-w. Daily evacuation 2.58 million tonnes, down 367,000 tonnes w-o-w. Australia iron ore 63.39 million tonnes, up 870,200 tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore 34.7 million tonnes, up 222,000 tonnes w-o-w. 143 ships at ports, up 17.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (July 1st)
· Futures 73,602,200 tonnes(Increase 1,044,500 tonnes)
· Options 73,579,900 tonnes(Increase 672,800 tonnes)
Steel Key Indicators
· China Gansu Province crude steel production from Jan- May 5.08 million tones, up 40.6% y-o-y. Gansu Province will need to keep a 21% y-o-y decrease in the late of the year according to the requirement of crude steel decrease mission.
· Tangshan structure steel physical were in very tight supply. Mills expected utilisation rate reach 65% after recover production from July 2nd. Daily production increased by 57,400 tonnes.
· MySteel estimated national crude steel production in June reached 91.67 million tones, daily production reached 3.06 million tones, up 0.41% m-o-m, up 4.72% y-o-y. 