Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
· Iron ore short-run neutral.
Macro
· China Q2 GDP grew by 7.9% year on year and 18.3% in Q1. In the first half of the year, the GDP was 53216.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, 5.6% lower than that in the first quarter.
· In June, the added value of China’s industries above designated size increased by 8.3% year-on-year, while the previous value increased by 8.8%. China’s total retail sales of consumer goods in June increased by 12.1% year-on-year, compared with the previous 12.4%.
· World Bank lowered global GDP expected growth rate in the year 2021. Ex-China east Asia and pacific area expected growth rate at 4$, lower than previous expectation at 4.4%.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
· Platts62 $222.30, +4.45, MTD $219.41
· MySteel 45 ports iron ore inventories at 125.51 million tonnes, up 937,800 tonnes w-o-w. Daily evacuation 2.77 million tonnes, up47,700 tonnes w-o-w. Australia iron ore 65.38 million tonnes, up 445,400 tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore 33.51 million tonnes, down 674,100 tonnes w-o-w. 155 ships at ports, up 17.
· Mysteel researched 247 blast furnace operation rate at 76.69%, down 1.56% w-o-w. Utilisation rate 88.55%, up 2.55% w-o-w. Daily pig iron production 2.36 million tonnes, up 67,800 tonnes.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Jul 15th)
· Futures 81,601,300 tonnes(Increase 709,700 tonnes)
· Options 81,438,000 tonnes(Increase 1,050,100 tonnes)
Steel Key Indicators
· Since the end of May, China cement cumulative price decline in many places has reached or exceeded 100 yuan / ton. In the face of weakening demand, local cement enterprises extend peak shifting production to balance market supply and demand.
