FOB China HRC
The index was flat yesterday (12.8.21) at US$928/t, MTD US$928.50/t.
HRC stockpiles at traders and mills increased by over 60,000t this week, with output increasing, participants said. Buyers were not ready to book with weak demand and some traders started to concern downstream demand may not recover in September. In addition to rising Covid cases, China’s July credit was only reported at 1.06trln yuan, much lower than the expected 1.5trln yuan, indicating negative economic pressure could persist in the second half.
Traders cut offers to $910-920/t cfr Vietnam for Indian SAE1006 grade coils. A Russian mill is willing to receive orders at $880-890/t cfr Vietnam for same grade coils, much lower than it previous offer at $910/t cfr Vietnam. Vietnamese buyers also cut bids to below $900/t cfr Vietnam for SAE grade coils produced by large mills. (Argus)
EU HRC
Expectations are diverging in the European coil market, with some anticipating a firmer market upon return from the summer holiday, and others taking the view that domestic producers will have to lower offers in line with cheaper imports.
One Russian mill was maintaining its September production offer to northern Europe at €1,080-1,090/t fca Antwerp, but there appeared to be little liquidity at this level. Offers from other Black Sea mills were heard below €950/t cfr Antwerp, including duties, and as low as €905/t cfr Italy. A Visegrad-based producer was maintaining its September offer at €1,250/t parity point for sheet, but buyers said this was too expensive. The the mill was offering €100/t cheaper, on a base coil equivalent, to the Hungarian and Polish markets.
Some participants said mills would have to reduce their offers to close the large gap with imports as production increases, while others pointed at a raft of bullish indicators, including a potential Chinese export tax, mills being well booked, the anticipated revoking of US Section 232 duties on European material and European economic stimulus measured designed to help the bloc rebound from the pandemic.
Where European producers have had gaps open up in their rolling programmes, when the automotive supply chain has postponed its deliveries, they have easily found a home for product in the higher-paying North American market.
Service centre stocks are growing, as mills begin to catch up on their backlogs, and as imports arrive. But some had material stuck at port that they could not clear because of exhausted quotas.
The Argus daily benchmark northwest Europe HRC index was static at €1,144/t yesterday, while the Italian index was unchanged at €1,037.75/t. (Argus)
US HRC
The S&P Global Platts TSI US hot-rolled coil index was calculated at $1,898.25/st ex-works Indiana on Aug. 12, up $3.75 from Aug. 11.
Multiple buyers indicated offers from different mills at $1,900/st, with one service centre indicating a recent transaction at that level. The offers and indication moved the daily index slightly higher toward that level. (Platts)
| Indices | Price | Change | MTD |
| Platts TSI HMS 1/2 80:20 CFR Turkey ($/mt) | 455.00 | -2.50 | 484.83 |
| Steel Rebar FOB Turkey ($/mt) | 697.50 | 0.00 | 720.57 |
| Argus HRC NW Europe (€/mt) | 1144.00 | 0.00 | 1165.08 |
| Argus FOB China HRC ($/mt) | 928.00 | 0.00 | 904.62 |
| LME HRC FOB TIANJIN CHINA USD/mt | LME HMS 80:20 CFR TK | |||||||
| Bid | Ask | Value | Bid | Ask | Value | |||
| Aug-21 | 925 | 935 | 930 | Aug-21 | 455 | 465 | 460 | |
| Sep-21 | 935 | 945 | 940 | Sep-21 | 467 | 477 | 472 | |
| Oct-21 | 935 | 945 | 940 | Oct-21 | 475 | 485 | 480 | |
| Nov-21 | 935 | 945 | 940 | Nov-21 | 475 | 485 | 480 | |
| Q4-21 | 934 | 944 | 939 | Q4-21 | 473 | 483 | 470 | |
| Q1-22 | 915 | 925 | 920 | Q1-22 | 465 | 475 | 470 | |
| LME REBAR FOB TK | BUSHELING | |||||||
| Bid | Ask | Value | Bid | Ask | Value | |||
| Aug-21 | 680 | 690 | 685 | Sep-21 | 642 | 652 | 647 | |
| Sep-21 | 705 | 715 | 710 | Oct-21 | 642 | 652 | 647 | |
| Oct-21 | 705 | 715 | 710 | Nov-21 | 650 | 660 | 655 | |
| Nov-21 | 705 | 715 | 710 | Dec-21 | 655 | 665 | 660 | |
| Q4-21 | 703 | 713 | 708 | Q1-22 | 655 | 665 | 660 | |
| Q1-22 | 675 | 685 | 680 | Q2-22 | 648 | 658 | 653 | |
| US HRC USD/short ton | NWE HRC EUR/metric ton | |||||||
| Bid | Ask | Value | Bid | Ask | Value | |||
| Aug-21 | 1875 | 1885 | 1880 | Aug-21 | 1145 | 1155 | 1150 | |
| Sep-21 | 1882 | 1892 | 1887 | Sep-21 | 1133 | 1143 | 1138 | |
| Oct-21 | 1770 | 1780 | 1775 | Oct-21 | 1105 | 1115 | 1110 | |
| Nov-21 | 1665 | 1675 | 1670 | Nov-21 | 1060 | 1070 | 1065 | |
| Q4-21 | 1679 | 1689 | 1684 | Q4-21 | 1070 | 1080 | 1075 | |
| Q1-22 | 1478 | 1488 | 1483 | Q1-22 | 959 | 969 | 964 | |