Brent crude futures rose 98 cents, or 1.4%, to $72.05 a barrel at 0542 GMT, after falling 1.6% on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 93 cents, or 1.4%, to $68.35 a barrel, clawing back a 1.4% loss on Thursday.
Following its recovery over the last week, the oil rally appears to be running out of steam. ICE Brent settled more than 1.6% lower yesterday. A firmer USD ahead of Jackson Hole has weighed on the broader commodities complex. Any signal from the Fed chairman that we could see a quicker than expected tapering in asset purchases could put some further downward pressure on oil prices. But despite all the excitement and expectation for some clarity from the Jackson Hole symposium, we won’t be surprised if it turns out to be a non-event. The market will probably be none the wiser about the timing of any Fed tapering by the end of the weekend. (ING)
For oil markets, a key event next week will be the OPEC+ meeting on 1 September. We do not expect any change to the group’s production policy and continue to believe that they will ease supply cuts by 400Mbbls/d for September. OPEC+ will take some comfort in the fact that we have seen a fairly swift recovery in oil prices from the lows of last week. In addition, demand concerns would have likely eased following China’s apparently successful attempt to deal with the latest wave of Covid-19. One issue that will likely be addressed at the meeting is the recent request from the US administration for the group to increase output further. (ING)
Beyond 2021, both OPEC and the IEA have forecast significant oil surpluses starting in the first quarter of 2022. Amid these signals, the OPEC+ coalition’s delegate level Joint Technical Committee will meet Aug. 31 to assess market conditions and determine member compliance with production quotas. The advisory Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will convene on Sept. 1, followed later in the day by the full OPEC+ ministerial meeting. The 22-country OPEC+ alliance, which collectively controls about half of global crude production, has broadly agreed to gradually roll back the historic production cuts it instituted last spring. But, unable to settle on a long-term plan, the bloc has taken to setting monthly quotas, which officials have said will allow it to be flexible in rapidly changing market conditions. (S&P Global Platts)
OIL MARKET ROUND-UP:
* U.S. Gulf of Mexico Oil Producers Shut Platforms as Ida Nears
* BP Shutting Gulf of Mexico Production Ahead of Storm
* China’s Oil and Gas Champion Promises Fast Pivot to Renewables
* Global Shipping Woes Squeeze More South American Beef Exporters
Singapore 380 INDIC
Sep21 411.25 / 413.25
Oct21 400.75 / 402.75
Nov21 393.50 / 395.50
Dec21 389.00 / 391.00
Jan22 386.25 / 388.25
Feb22 384.75 / 386.75
Q4-21 394.25 / 396.25
Q1-22 384.50 / 386.50
Q2-22 379.75 / 381.75
Q3-22 374.00 / 377.00
CAL22 375.50 / 378.50
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Sep21 385.50 / 387.50
Oct21 379.50 / 381.50
Nov21 374.25 / 376.25
Dec21 370.25 / 372.25
Jan22 367.75 / 369.75
Feb22 366.25 / 368.25
Q4-21 374.75 / 376.75
Q1-22 366.25 / 368.25
Q2-22 361.25 / 363.25
Q3-22 354.75 / 357.75
CAL22 356.25 / 359.25
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep21 514.75 / 519.75
Oct21 511.00 / 516.00
Nov21 508.00 / 513.00
Dec21 505.50 / 510.50
Jan22 503.25 / 508.25
Feb22 501.25 / 506.25
Q4-21 508.00 / 513.00
Q1-22 501.25 / 506.25
Q2-22 494.75 / 500.75
Q3-22 488.75 / 494.75
CAL22 492.00 / 498.00
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep21 494.25 / 499.25
Oct21 492.00 / 497.00
Nov21 489.75 / 494.75
Dec21 487.50 / 492.50
Jan22 485.50 / 490.50
Feb22 483.50 / 488.50
Q4-21 489.75 / 494.75
Q1-22 483.50 / 488.50
Q2-22 477.00 / 483.00
Q3-22 471.50 / 477.50
CAL22 474.25 / 480.25
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Sep21 78.04 / 78.18
Oct21 77.77 / 77.97
Nov21 77.42 / 77.62
Dec21 77.06 / 77.26
Jan22 76.77 / 76.97
Feb22 76.52 / 76.72
Q4-21 77.40 / 77.60
Q1-22 76.52 / 76.72
Q2-22 76.08 / 76.28
Q3-22 75.83 / 76.03
CAL22 75.83 / 76.23
Ice Gasoil Swap
Sep21 594.13 / 596.13
Oct21 592.14 / 594.14
Nov21 588.10 / 590.10
Dec21 584.92 / 586.92
Jan22 582.89 / 584.89
Feb22 580.89 / 582.89
Q4-21 588.40 / 590.40
Q1-22 580.94 / 582.94
Q2-22 576.15 / 578.15
Q3-22 572.11 / 574.11
CAL22 574.00 / 577.00
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