FOB China HRC
The index kept flat on Friday (17.9.21) at US$909/t, MTD US$909/t.
Markets are inactive today with China on holiday for the Mid-Autumn Festival that runs through tomorrow.
Chinese production cuts have targeted rebar and wire rod output because the margins are narrower than for HRC. That led to prices to diverge on Friday with Shanghai HRC lower by Yn40/t and rebar higher by Yn30/t. Domestic rebar prices could be well supported this autumn if curbs are disproportionately for longs output.
China published a draft of the 2021-2022 autumn-winter season air pollution control plans on Friday that calls for strict enforcement of steel production curbs in an area including 28 cities in Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and Shannxi province from October 2021 to March 2022. The draft signals no relief from curbs, especially with the plan running during the Beijing Winter Olympics in February when air quality will be a top priority. (Argus)
EU HRC
Sentiment remained weak in the European hot-rolled coil (HRC) market today, as cheaper import offers and rising stocks stymied activity levels.
Turkish HRC was offered into Italy at around €810-815/t cfr, to little avail, with some larger buyers willing to accept €815/t cfr including duties. Japanese material was offered at around €910-915/t cfr, with the advantage of safeguard duties less likely to be payable.
Turkish sentiment has weakened this week, with buyers in the country now bidding, so far unsuccessfully, at $850/t cfr, for Ukrainian coils. There was even talk that a German producer sold pickled and oiled HRC into Turkey, but this seems highly unlikely as pickled and oiled is still in tight supply, especially in north Europe, and the mill could command higher prices in its domestic market.
Larger Italian buyers would not even consider paying €970/t ex-works. At least one mill has cut offers to around €1,000/t but is not making sales given the cautious attitude of buyers. Serbian HRC was reported at €960/t into Italy by a buyer, but this was not confirmed with the seller.
Argus’ daily NW EU HRC index was unmoved at €1080/t ex-works Friday, while the daily Italian index nudged down to €1,010.75/t. (Argus)
Turkish Scrap
UK, Benelux dock prices for HMS heard higher
Bearish sentiment persists
Turkish Deepsea import ferrous scrap prices softened Sept. 17, as mills held back from the market after buying a flurry of cargoes earlier in the week, sources said. S&P Global Platts assessed Turkish imports of premium heavy melting scrap 1/2 (80:20) Sept. 17 at $439/mt CFR, down $2/mt on day. “The mills who sold rebar and billet have already bought back-to-back [cargoes], so there are not many buyers around, and also not many offers either,” a Turkish mill source said, citing an indicative tradable value for premium HMS 1/2 (80:20) at $438-$442/mt CFR. A Turkish agent source said the same level was workable “as long as the Turks can sell billet and rebar.” A second agent source was more bearish, suggesting “new steps will be around $430-$438/mt for HMS 1/2 (80:20) after China decreased billet prices.” (Platts)
| Indices | Price | Change | MTD |
| Platts TSI HMS 1/2 80:20 CFR Turkey ($/mt) | 439.00 | -2.00 | 442.10 |
| Steel Rebar FOB Turkey ($/mt) | 667.50 | 0.00 | 666.58 |
| Argus HRC NW Europe (€/mt) | 1080.00 | -8.00 | 1094.10 |
| Argus FOB China HRC ($/mt) | 909.00 | 0.00 | 909.00 |
| LME HRC FOB TIANJIN CHINA USD/mt | LME HMS 80:20 CFR TK | |||||||
| Bid | Ask | Value | Bid | Ask | Value | |||
| Sep-21 | 910 | 920 | 915 | Sep-21 | 440 | 450 | 445 | |
| Oct-21 | 895 | 905 | 900 | Oct-21 | 444 | 454 | 449 | |
| Nov-21 | 895 | 905 | 900 | Nov-21 | 444 | 454 | 449 | |
| Q4-21 | 895 | 905 | 900 | Q4-21 | 444 | 454 | 445 | |
| Q1-22 | 890 | 900 | 895 | Q1-22 | 440 | 450 | 445 | |
| Q2-22 | 887 | 897 | 892 | Q2-22 | 435 | 445 | 440 | |
| LME REBAR FOB TK | BUSHELING | |||||||
| Bid | Ask | Value | Bid | Ask | Value | |||
| Sep-21 | 665 | 675 | 670 | Oct-21 | 583 | 593 | 588 | |
| Oct-21 | 668 | 678 | 673 | Nov-21 | 595 | 605 | 600 | |
| Nov-21 | 668 | 678 | 673 | Dec-21 | 595 | 605 | 600 | |
| Q4-21 | 668 | 678 | 673 | Q4-21 | 591 | 601 | 596 | |
| Q1-22 | 668 | 678 | 673 | Q1-22 | 585 | 595 | 590 | |
| Q2-22 | 642 | 652 | 647 | Q2-22 | 582 | 592 | 587 | |
| US HRC USD/short ton | NWE HRC EUR/metric ton | |||||||
| Bid | Ask | Value | Bid | Ask | Value | |||
| Sep-21 | 1931 | 1941 | 1936 | Sep-21 | 1081 | 1091 | 1086 | |
| Oct-21 | 1852 | 1862 | 1857 | Oct-21 | 1025 | 1035 | 1030 | |
| Nov-21 | 1715 | 1725 | 1720 | Nov-21 | 995 | 1005 | 1000 | |
| Q4-21 | 1714 | 1724 | 1719 | Q4-21 | 992 | 1002 | 997 | |
| Q1-22 | 1452 | 1462 | 1457 | Q1-22 | 918 | 928 | 923 | |
| Q2-22 | 1303 | 1313 | 1308 | Q2-22 | 852 | 862 | 857 | |