At 0210 GMT, Brent futures contract was up 15 cents/b (0.2%) from the previous close at $76.34/b, while the NYMEX November light sweet crude contract was 9 cents/b (0.12%) higher at $72.32/b.
“Crude prices rallied after US stockpiles tumbled to the lowest levels since October 2018,” said OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya, adding that oil market fundamentals were turning bullish as concerns of an economic slowdown in China eased and amid forecasts that supply shortages for natural gas could lead to increased demand for oil. ANZ Research analysts similarly noted that crude oil prices have risen as supply availability was back in focus, with US oil inventories falling for the seventh consecutive week. US commercial crude stocks fell 3.48 million barrels to 413.96 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 17, to more than 8% below the five-year average, Energy Information Administration data showed. Stocks were last lower Oct. 5, 2018.
Oil supply disruptions due to Hurricane Ida continue as operators in the US Gulf of Mexico struggle to return to full production. Almost 294,214b/d or 16.18% of production remained shut-in as of Sept. 22. according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. US crude output averaged 10.6 million b/d in the week ended Sept. 17, up 500,000 b/d week on week but still down 900,000 b/d from pre-Ida levels. Global oil supply was also expected to remain tight, with UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei saying Sept. 21 that OPEC and its allies should stick to its agreement to increase production by 400,000 b/d each month, even as some observers call for a greater production increase as pandemic restrictions ease, S&P Global Platts reported.
China’s oil product exports have also fallen due to tight quota availability and government controls, with gasoline exports falling 23% month on month in August to a three-month low, Platts reported .Sentiment was further supported by expectations of a spill over impact from higher gas prices as the natural gas market continues to trade at elevated levels amid tightness going into winter. “European gas storage is a little over 72% full, compared to the 5-year average of around 88% for this time of year,” ING research analysts said Sept. 23. (S&P Global)
OIL MARKET ROUND-UP:
* OPEC Nations Warn of Oil Market Turbulence From Gas Crisis
* Goldman Sees $90 Oil If Coming Winter Is Colder Than Normal
* A Force Majeure in Canada’s Oil Sands Adds to Crude Supply Woes
* U.S. Oil Stockpiles Contracting Amid Global Energy Crisis:
* U.S. Energy Exports Show First Surplus Since at Least the 1970s
* Iraq Warns of Oil Demand Rising as Global Gas Crisis Worsens
Singapore 380 INDIC
Oct21 446.50 / 448.50
Nov21 435.75 / 437.75
Dec21 428.25 / 430.25
Jan22 422.75 / 424.75
Feb22 419.00 / 421.00
Mar22 415.25 / 417.25
Q4-21 437.00 / 439.00
Q1-22 419.00 / 421.00
Q2-22 408.25 / 410.25
Q3-22 397.75 / 400.75
CAL22 400.25 / 403.25
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Oct21 419.00 / 421.00
Nov21 413.00 / 415.00
Dec21 408.00 / 410.00
Jan22 403.75 / 405.75
Feb22 400.25 / 402.25
Mar22 396.75 / 398.75
Q4-21 413.50 / 415.50
Q1-22 400.25 / 402.25
Q2-22 389.75 / 391.75
Q3-22 378.50 / 381.50
CAL22 382.00 / 385.00
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Oct21 547.25 / 552.25
Nov21 543.75 / 548.75
Dec21 540.00 / 545.00
Jan22 536.50 / 541.50
Feb22 533.00 / 538.00
Mar22 529.50 / 534.50
Q4-21 543.75 / 548.75
Q1-22 533.00 / 538.00
Q2-22 523.00 / 529.00
Q3-22 514.50 / 520.50
CAL22 519.25 / 525.25
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Oct21 524.00 / 529.00
Nov21 521.00 / 526.00
Dec21 518.00 / 523.00
Jan22 514.75 / 519.75
Feb22 511.50 / 516.50
Mar22 508.25 / 513.25
Q4-21 521.00 / 526.00
Q1-22 511.50 / 516.50
Q2-22 501.75 / 507.75
Q3-22 493.25 / 499.25
CAL22 497.75 / 503.75
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Oct21 84.30 / 84.44
Nov21 83.69 / 83.89
Dec21 83.06 / 83.26
Jan22 82.53 / 82.73
Feb22 82.09 / 82.29
Mar22 81.69 / 81.89
Q4-21 83.70 / 83.90
Q1-22 82.11 / 82.31
Q2-22 81.10 / 81.30
Q3-22 80.21 / 80.41
CAL22 80.56 / 80.96
Ice Gasoil Swap
Oct21 639.84 / 641.84
Nov21 635.46 / 637.46
Dec21 630.92 / 632.92
Jan22 627.16 / 629.16
Feb22 623.59 / 625.59
Mar22 619.88 / 621.88
Q4-21 635.40 / 637.40
Q1-22 623.54 / 625.54
Q2-22 614.54 / 616.54
Q3-22 607.59 / 609.59
CAL22 610.91 / 613.91
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