At 10:52 am Singapore time (0235 GMT), the ICE December Brent futures contract was up 94 cents/b (1.1%) from the previous close at $85.87/b, a high not seen since October 2018. The NYMEX November light sweet crude contract rose $1.33/b (1.61%) at $83.60/b. It was last higher on October 2014.
Investors were now eyeing Iranian talks that are set to resume this week, about four months after negotiations were delayed as a new ultra conservative administration took office. Analysts said the likelihood of a return of Iranian oil to global export markets was unclear.
Platts Analytics expects Iranian oil supply to rise to 3.66 million b/d by December 2022 if a deal is reached and US oil sanctions are removed. If talks are delayed further or collapse, the Iranian supply outlook would fall to 2.17 million b/d. Investors have piled long positions in the ICE Brent and NYMEX light sweet crude contracts in recent weeks, amid the improving sentiment for crude oil. Speculative net longs in ICE Brent crude as of Oct. 5 stood at 332,677 lots, most recent data from ICE showed, a high not seen since March 16.
The US oil rig count has climbed almost continuously since hitting a pandemic low of 172 on Aug. 14, 2020, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed. The latest US oil rig count stood at 445 as of Oct. 15, up 12 on the week. US crude oil output meanwhile, stood at 11.4 million b/d as of Oct. 8, US Energy Information Administration data showed. (S&P Global Platts)
China’s economy, meanwhile, likely grew at the slowest pace in a year in the third quarter, hurt by power shortages, supply bottlenecks and sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks. Daily crude processing rate fell to the lowest since May 2020 in September in the world’s second-largest oil consumer, as feedstock shortage and environmental inspection crippled operations at refineries, while independent refiners faced tightening import quotas for crude oil. (Reuters)
OIL MARKET ROUND-UP:
* Oil’s Leap Through $85 Shows Spillover Effect From Energy Crisis
* OPEC+ Compliance With Cuts Reaches 115% in Sept.: Delegates
* OPEC+ Is Hesitant About Boosting Oil Supplies: Here’s Why
* China’s Sept. Apparent Oil Demand Falls 2% Y/y
* China Refinery Runs Fall to Lowest in 16 Months on Power Curbs
* Global Energy Crisis Prompts Asia to Turn to the U.S. for Oil
* Japan Keeping an Eye on High Oil Prices, Premier Kishida Says
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Nov21 472.00 / 474.00
Dec21 467.25 / 469.25
Jan22 462.75 / 464.75
Feb22 459.00 / 461.00
Mar22 455.25 / 457.25
Apr22 451.50 / 453.50
Q1-22 459.00 / 461.00
Q2-22 447.75 / 449.75
Q3-22 435.75 / 437.75
Q4-22 422.25 / 425.25
CAL22 440.75 / 443.75
Singapore 380 INDIC
Nov21 494.50 / 496.50
Dec21 489.00 / 491.00
Jan22 483.75 / 485.75
Feb22 479.50 / 481.50
Mar22 475.50 / 477.50
Apr22 472.00 / 474.00
Q1-22 479.75 / 481.75
Q2-22 468.50 / 470.50
Q3-22 458.50 / 460.50
Q4-22 447.25 / 450.25
CAL22 463.00 / 466.00
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Nov21 580.00 / 585.00
Dec21 576.00 / 581.00
Jan22 572.00 / 577.00
Feb22 568.00 / 573.00
Mar22 564.00 / 569.00
Apr22 560.00 / 565.00
Q1-22 568.00 / 573.00
Q2-22 556.25 / 561.25
Q3-22 544.50 / 550.50
Q4-22 534.00 / 540.00
CAL22 550.50 / 556.50
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Nov21 602.50 / 607.50
Dec21 598.00 / 603.00
Jan22 593.50 / 598.50
Feb22 589.25 / 594.25
Mar22 585.00 / 590.00
Apr22 581.00 / 586.00
Q1-22 589.25 / 594.25
Q2-22 577.00 / 582.00
Q3-22 565.25 / 571.25
Q4-22 554.75 / 560.75
CAL22 571.25 / 577.25
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Nov21 97.92 / 98.06
Dec21 96.79 / 96.99
Jan22 95.90 / 96.10
Feb22 95.08 / 95.28
Mar22 94.24 / 94.44
Apr22 93.50 / 93.70
Q1-22 95.10 / 95.30
Q2-22 92.77 / 92.97
Q3-22 90.60 / 90.80
Q4-22 88.92 / 89.12
CAL22 91.74 / 92.14
Ice Gasoil Swap
Nov21 741.52 / 743.52
Dec21 734.54 / 736.54
Jan22 727.61 / 729.61
Feb22 721.07 / 723.07
Mar22 714.55 / 716.55
Apr22 707.57 / 709.57
Q1-22 721.05 / 723.05
Q2-22 703.02 / 705.02
Q3-22 690.39 / 692.39
Q4-22 679.26 / 681.26
CAL22 697.94 / 700.94
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