Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
· Neutral.
Macro
· China central bank PBOC held a housing and financial market conference to guide major banks managing the housing related finance and maintain a stable and healthy housing market. Evergrande default risk and spillover was in general controllable.
· China National Bureau of Statistics: Q3 GDP up 4.9% y-o-y, Q2 GDP up 7.9% y-o-y. Est. up 5.2% y-o-y. China Q3 above designated scale industry added value y-o-y growth rate 3.1%, last 5.3%, est. 4.5%.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
· Platts 62%: $125.45 (-0.55) MTD $123.07.PBF traded 12 yuan lower compared to last Friday in the morning at Shandong ports. However seaborne trades of PBF reached $122.8 last Friday, which was the first fixed price trade in PBF over the entire week, indicating November index was believed so far stable. The mid and high grade iron ore concentrates are still popular in Q4 during winter production curb as well as a shortage on coal. However December iron ore has rather weak expectation since 0 growth rate of crude steel will decrease speculative demand during the last month of the year, which was the major reason to keep Nov-Dec 21 high at the moment.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Oct 15th)
· Futures 70,071,000 tonnes(Increase 1,008,200 tonnes)
· Options 84,889,000 tonnes(Increase 1,120,000 tonnes)
Steel Key Indicators
· Steelbank construction steels inventory 5.9896 million tonnes, up 7.26% w-o-w. HRC inventories 2.7857 million tonnes, down 8.27% w-o-w.
· Jan- Sep China crude steel production 805.89 million tonnes, up 2% y-o-y. Pig iron production 67.107 million tonnes, down 1.3% y-o-y. Steel production 1.02 billion tonnes, up 4.6% y-o-y.
Coal Indicators
· Major coking coal export port Ganqimaodou cleared 293 trucks last Thursday. The port expected clearance efficiency increasing in the following weeks. At the same time, downstream orders started to decrease.
