Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
· Neutral to bullish.
Macro
· IMF indicated that supply chain disrupt potentially extend the expectation of inflation in some places of the world.
· Major economies government revealed that they are currently researching on release crude oil. Previously U.S. indicated to coordinate to cool down global energy prices.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
· Platts62 $87.20, -2.75, MTD $92.97. Iron ore seaborne market gradually return stable during the week, as several fixed trades done during this week. Iron ore yesterday corrected massively on both futures and China northern ports. However physical traders expected to recover some losses during Friday. Port iron ore stock growth majorly stressed down the front month contract as they were linked with delivery sentiments. However the contracts in the year 2022 were mostly connected with the CFR import cost. DCE created contango market in mid of this week. Contango market was normally a signal of periodic low historically. Spread expected to stay at current level.
· MySteel 45 ports iron ore inventories at 151.06 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes w-o-w. Daily evacuation 2.90 million tonnes, up 179,000 tonnes w-o-w. Australia iron ore 70.8 million tonnes, down 389,900 tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore 53.12 million tonnes, up 1.24 million tonnes w-o-w. 167 ships at ports, down 11.
· Vale expected to sell more iron ores in the year 2022 and the company contributed to recover the annual capacity to 400 million tonnes in the future few years.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Nov 18th)
· Futures 79,480,200 tonnes(Increase 2,296,000 tonnes)
· Options 70,920,000 tonnes(Increase 1,570,000 tonnes)
Steel Key Indicators
· 18 sample independent EAFs average construction steel cost 4284 yuan/tonne, down 236 yuan/tonne. Average profit 377 yuan/tonne.
· Handan new production control estimated impact 3 million tonnes of pig iron during winter.
Coal Indicators
· China Coal Industry Association: January to October China top 10 coal production totaled 1.79 billion tonnes, up 113 million tonnes y-o-y. The C10 coal enterprises accounted for 54.2% of the entire coal market in China.
