Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
• Neutral.
Macro
• World bank predicted China real GDP growth rate reach 8.0% in the year 2021 and 5.1% in the year 2022.
• Clarkson statistic indicated that global fleet trades reached 45.07 million CGT, up 138% y-o-y, refreshed a 8-year record.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $122.60, -1.20, MTD $109.64. Current seaborne mainstream iron ore trades were weak as market was rather positive on Q2 next year compared to front months. From November 18th, SGX iron ore Jan rebounded 48.78%, DCE may rebounded 32.6% according to settlement price. The difference was because China port stocks increased massively which meant more cheaper deliverable sources available on markets. However for seaborne iron ore, Australia and Brazil deliver in December were at a seasonal low area. As a result the benchmark of the two iron ore contracts started to separate again.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Dec 22nd)
• Futures 94,794,000 tonnes(Increase 932,400 tonnes)
• Options 63,253,000 tonnes(Increase 60,000 tonnes)
Steel Key Indicators
• MySteel Rebar Inventory: Rebar production 2.65 million tonnes, down 3.08% w-o-w. Mills inventory 1.78 million tonnes, down 7.48% w-o-w. Circulation inventory 3.42 million tonnes, down 5.33% w-o-w.
• Tangshan major steel mills average billet cost 3974 yuan/tonne, down 8 yuan/tonne w-o-w. Steel mills average margin at 416 yuan/tonne, up 68 yuan/tonne w-o-w.
• CISA indicated that the first three weeks in December steel price rebounded and stablised, expected the aftermarket would consolidate in narrow range.
• World Steel Association statistic indicated that global crude steel decreased by 9.9% in November, at 143.3 million tonnes. China November crude steel 69.3 million tonnes, down 22% y-o-y.
Coal Indicators
• China Coking Industry Association indicated that average coking enterprise average profit 512 yuan/tonne, survey covered 209 major enterprises, expected the coking profit would decrease in the year 2022.
