Capesize
March Futures – The futures traded below the USD 18,800 support last week resulting in the Price trading to a low of USD 16,500, keeping the technical above key support, however the deep pullback meant the technical had a neutral bias. Having held support the futures have broken near-term resistance levels, upside moves that fail at or below USD 21,382 remain vulnerable to further tests to the downisde, above this level the futures will target the USD 23,750 high. The daily RSI is now above 50 with the stochastic in oversold territory, momentum is warning the futures are vulnerable to a test to the upside, providing the RSI holds above the 50 level. The technical is bullish, there are concerns over the depth of the pullback that has created the wave overlap below USD 20,250 leaving the futures vulnerable to a test to the downside, making USD 21,382 the key resistance for market buyers.
Panamax
March Futures – We noted last week that the futures had produced a 3-wave pattern lower which is often associated with bullish moves, we also highlighted a bullish Elliott wave. The downside moves held above key support alongside trend support resulting in the futures moving higher. The upside moves above USD 25,727 today would suggest that the USD 26,875 high could be broken, if it is we have a potential upside target at USD 29,834 level using the Bill Williams approach. The technical is bullish supported by the RSI above 50, however if the futures do make a new high it is worth noting that Elliott cycle will have achieved the minimum requirement for phase/cycle completion whilst the RSI will create a negative divergence with price. The technical is currently bullish, the question is what the ever-changing geopolitical landscape will have on the black sea?
Supramax
March futures – As noted last week the futures had warned that we could be about to enter a corrective phase with downside moves considered as countertrend. The futures consolidated (producing a very small pullback) with price trading to a high of USD 29,250, suggesting we are about to confirm a bullish Elliot wave-5 with a potential upside target as high as USD 34,587. However, like the Panamax, upside moves that trade above USD 29,500 will create a negative divergence with the RSI, not a sell signal it does warn of the potential for momentum slow down. If a new high is achieved, then key fractal resistance will rise to USD 27,050. Technically bullish supported by the Elliott wave cycle, any divergence on a new high will need to be monitored.
Oil
April futures- The downside move on Friday failed to hold with price rallying over USD 3.00 in the afternoon session, warning that the geopolitical situation could be worsening. This is less about the technical and more about Russian oil supply and the accompanying sanctions that go with any conflict with the Ukraine. At the moment price remains in a range between USD 89.93 end USD 96.78 with a mid-value price at USD 93.35. The futures are moving higher with a war looking imminent, suggesting the oil will trade higher over the coming days. Technically bullish, it would be hard to justify any form of technical sell at this point.
Ore
March Futures – As noted last week the upside move that started in November had no semblance of an Elliot wave cycle within it (meaning the upside move is not considered as bullish impulse), suggesting it was part of a larger corrective wave. The futures traded lower to a low of USD 125.00 before producing a bullish rejection candle, resulting in the futures trading to a high of USD 141.35. Upside moves above the USD 141.75 level will create a higher high on the intraday technical, leaving the futures to target our key resistance at USD 146.29. If our analysis is correct, then this upside move is potentially part of a larger corrective cycle, if we do trade above USD 146.29 then the daily technical will have a neutral bias. Technically neutral on the intraday with price still vulnerable to further tests to the downisde.
Steel
March futures- As noted on previous reports the futures remain in a bearish impulse wave 3, suggesting upside moves would be considered as countertrend, price now seems to be leaving a consolidation phase to the downisde with the futures trading below the USD 965 support. Although technically bearish and in trend the new low has created a positive divergence with the RSI, warning that we have the potential to see a momentum slow down, note this is not a buy signal as divergences can and do fail. Elliott wave analysis continues to suggest that’s upside moves should be considered as countertrend, corrective moves higher that fail at or below USD 1,288 remain vulnerable to further tests to the downside (a considerable amount of room to the upside, granted). Above USD 1,025 will warn that the USD 1,144 and USD 1,205 resistance levels could be tested. Technically bearish but not considered a technical sell at this point.
Tanker TD3C
March Futures – The futures remain technically bearish with price breaking to the downside, the futures remain in divergence. The new low means that key fractal resistance has dropped to USD 7.2020, upside moves that trade above this level will create a higher, taking the technical into bull territory. Likewise, upside moves that fail at or below USD 7.0368 remain vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level technical will have a neutral bias. Technically bearish, the divergence is not a buy signal, but it does mean the futures are not considered a technical sell at this point.
Coal
March Futures – Support remains unchanged from last week between USD 339 – USD 282. Elliott wave analysis continues to suggest that the downside move is considered as countertrend at this point, below USD 282 the technical will have a neutral bias. The RSI remains above 50 with the stochastic in oversold territory, momentum is warning that the futures are vulnerable to a test to the upside, suggesting we could be about to enter a bullish wave 5.