Capesize
April Futures – The futures continue to hold in a bullish trending environment, but price is in a corrective phase. Downside moves on the daily technical that hold at or above USD 21,232 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. The RSI is above 50, supporting a bull argument but price is now between the 8-21 period EMA’s, suggesting the futures have found value at this point. A close on the daily chart above USD 28,066 would warn that momentum is improving based on price, implying the USD 29,257 resistance level could be tested, above this level the futures will target the USD 31,000 high. The futures remain in a corrective phase with price holding above the Fibonacci support zone (USD 25,346, USD 23,600, and USD 21,232). The RSI is at 56 and will need to hold above the 50 level, if it does, we could see further tests to the upside.
Panamax
April Futures – last week we noted the futures were in a corrective phase with downside moves considered to be countertrend. Price did trade below the USD 26,460 support, to a low of USD 25,125 before moving higher, the technical remains bullish but now has a neutral bias. Upside moves in the futures that fail at or below USD 30,725 will leave the technical vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level price will have a bullish bias and target the USD 33,625 high. The daily technical remain bullish above USD 22,750 and bearish below, intraday Elliott wave analysis would suggest we have the potential to test the USD 33,625 high.
Supramax
April Futures – As noted last week, our Elliott wave analysis had suggested the downside moves should be considered as countertrend, Price did trade below the USD 30,575 support, meaning the futures had a neutral bias; however, having traded to a low of USD 29,750 the futures are now at USD 35,100 having traded above the USD 35,195 resistance on Friday. The technical is bullish and has a bullish bias once again, price needs to trade above and hold above the USD 35,195 level, if it does, we target the USD 38,000 high. Intraday Elliott wave analysis is bullish suggesting corrective moves lower will be against the trend.
Oil
May Futures – Last week we highlighted that the futures have potential to trade a little lower with a near-term target of USD 100.60, if this level held then we had the potential for a bullish Gartley pattern, price did trade below this level (low USD 96.93). However, we still had the correction as a wave 5 of a wave C, meaning the futures were not considered a technical sell as we were nearing phase/cycle completion suggesting market buyers would be on the sidelines waiting for buy signals. The futures are now at USD 115.00 having rallied USD 18.00; the upside move above the USD 113.91 means the technical is back in bullish territory, we now target the USD 118.36 and USD 133.15 resistance levels. Technically bullish, downside moves that hold at or above USD 103.07 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias.
Iron Ore
April Futures – The futures traded through the USD 140.62 support level last week but only traded to a low of USD 136.95, price did not test the USD 132.35 fractal support, meaning price remained technically bullish but with a neutral bias. The futures have since traded to a high of USD 155.05 but remain below the USD 156.88 level, leaving the futures vulnerable to a technical pullback. Price is currently trading at USD 150; corrective moves lower that hold at or above USD 143.10 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will target the USD 136.95 fractal support. The technical is bullish with a neutral bias, key resistance is at USD 156.88, if it holds then the technical is vulnerable, if it is broken, we target the USD 167.15 high.
Steel
April Futures – Technically bullish last week we noted the futures had potentially completed an intraday Elliott wave cycle using the Williams approach. The futures have corrected but continue to hold above USD 1,330. Corrective moves lower that hold at or above this level will support a bull argument, below this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Upside moves above the USD 1,585 high would suggest we remain on the wave 5, implying we could test the USD 1,688 level (78.6% Fibonacci projection of waves 1 to 3).
Tanker TD3
April Futures – Technically bearish last week, momentum had warned that we had the potential to test the upside resistance zone between USD 9.3615 – USD 9.8633. The RSI failed to hold above the support level resulting in further downside moves in the futures below our support levels, price is below the 8-21 period EMA’s supported by the RSI below 50. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 9.4601 will remain vulnerable to further tests to the upside, above this level the futures will have a neutral bias with a potential upside target at the USD 10.4770 high. Downisde moves below USD 7.4860 will target the USD 6.9520 low. The technical is bearish but the stochastic is now in oversold territory suggesting the downisde move could be overextended.
Coking Coal
April Futures – As noted last week the technical although bullish was trading around USD 200 above the 55-period EMA warning the futures were looking overextended, meaning the futures either needed to correct or consolidate and wait for the averages to catch up. The futures have entered a corrective phase, downside moves that hold at or above USD 454 will support a bull argument, below this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Elliott wave analysis continues to suggest that the downside moves should be considered as countertrend at this point. Technically bullish but in a corrective phase, we continue to have a mean reversion gap of over USD 135 suggesting the Fibonacci support zone (USD 530 – USD 454) could be tested.