Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
• Neutral.
Macro:
• ECB indicated at the monetary conference that the bank would consider to “pause” QT if see serious economy recession in long-run.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $95.20, +1.00, MTD $91.42. The seaborne market saw less bids although macro environment recovered during last two weeks. PBF and NHGF were fixed in the late half of last week. India announced to cut export duties from 45-50% to 30% on the iron ore and pellets with ferrous grade below 58%. Previously, Chinese iron ore import from India down 70% during the first nine months because of tariff increase in May. MySteel estimated the India export would recover to 4.5- 5 million tons per month from December or next January. However many Asian mills indicated that the allocation of furnace input were fixed for the rest of year. Thus, there should be no marginal demand for December or late November laycans.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Nov 24th)
• Futures 120,956,600 tons(Increase 1,924,600 tons)
• Options 96,834,100 tons(Increase 3,310,200 tons)
Steel Key Indicators:
• Tangshan average pig iron cost 2799 yuan/ton, average billet cost 3652 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton on the week. Average production loss at 132 yaun/ton.
Coal Indicators:
• Several steel mills in Tangshan accepted coke price rise by 100 yuan/ton.
• Australia FOB market suffered a 23.17% loss in November to $246.5, then maintained at the level for the rest of the week. There was Goonyella PMV traded at $246.25. Tradable levels were heard in the $240-250/mt FOB Australia for December loading.
