Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
• Neutral to bearish.
Macro:
• China’s Ministry of Finance: In 2023, China will appropriately increase fiscal expenditure, promote recovery of consumption market.
• Many dry bulk shipowners will have to slow steam their fleets for their vessels to achieve a passing rating in the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) regulation that takes effect on 1 January 2023, potentially disrupting a dry bulk shipping segment hampered by geopolitical turmoil and a sagging global economy.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $117.65, +0.30. The winter iron ore stock for Chinese mills entered a end with Chinese New Year looming. Steel mills suffered negative production margin because the uptick of raw materials and low trading volume and change on steel sales. Thus, iron ore increasing potentially reaching limit in January, seeing lower marginal demand.
• 45 Chinese iron ore arrivals at 26.82 million tons, up 6.03 million tons on the week. Six northern ports iron ore arrivals at 14.56 million tons, up 3.25 million tons.
• The state-controlled producer increased domestic prices by 200 rupees/t ($2/t) from November to Rs4,300/t for lump with 65.5pc Fe and by Rs500/t to Rs3,410/t for 10mm fines with 64pc Fe. Lump and fines prices are now lower against the previous year by 12pc and 16pc, respectively.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Jan 3rd)
l Futures 89,796,400 tons(Increase 1,131,500 tons)
• Options 65,000,800 tons(Increase 658,500 tons)
Steel Key Indicators:
• Qinghuangdao in Hebei Province, China started level II air pollution alert, to restrict 50% of sintering in three steel mills, last 3-5 days from January 3rd.
Coal Indicators:
• A trade between an Indian steelmaker and an international trader for 40,000 mt of Australian premium mid-vol Goonyella coal loading in early February at $297/mt.
• Chinese physical coke price down 100-110 yuan/ton for the first round after several decrease in December.