Verdict:
• Short-run Bearish.
Macro:
• Dalian Commodity Exchange and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange both cut commission rates for many products. However iron ore and coking coal maintain original rates.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $139.40, -0.90, MTD $142.01. The demand for IOCJ returned in short-term because of the decreasing supply of China domestic concentrates. Thus, MB65- P62 potentially recovered from $10 to $12 in the new few weeks. NHGF saw active trades during current two weeks. JMBF was the major discount cargoes on seaborne market. PBF and MACF saw less trade.
• MySteel statistics indicated that Australia and Brazil total shipped 21.15 million tons of iron ore, down 6.42 million tons on the week.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Jan 8th)
• Futures 110,930,400 tons(Increase 1,342,600 tons)
• Options 85,497,400 tons(Increase 1,975,000 tons)
Steel Key Indicators:
• MySteel estimated sample steel mills average utilisation rate at 89.08% in 2023, up 4.55% from 2022. Average profit margin at 40.93%, down 10% from 2022. Average EAFs operation rate 65%, up 8.73% from 2022.
Coal Indicators:
• China Tangshan mills proposed a price cut for the second round by 100- 110 yuan/ton.
