High volatility expected, but iron ore risks reversal

Ferrous Sector Money-flow: DCE iron ore started to soften after open interest reached a yearly-high, indicating previous longs are taking gains. Coke became the leader of ferrous sector during previous week and early this week. DCE September iron ore total contract value was 65 billion Yuan, the peak in 2019 was 75 billion yuan. However, …

China Abandons Hard Growth Target, Shifts Stimulus Focus to Jobs

The Chinese government abandoned its decades-long practice of setting an annual target for economic growth amid the storm of uncertainty unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic, and said it would continue to increase stimulus. Speaking at the National People’s Congress in Beijing on Friday morning, Premier Li Keqiang delivered an annual policy address that instead laid …

Iron ore blips back on supply fears, stimulus hopes

Iron ore futures recovered from yesterday’s blip to trade above $95 as investors become increasingly concerned over the coronavirus crisis in Brazil. Brazil’s iron ore shipments had their slowest start to a year in the last five years. Brazilian miner Vale downgraded its production guidance early in the year, Morgan Financials Ltd noted that more …

What to Watch as China Unveils Stimulus in Policy Meeting

China’s top leaders should reveal on Friday how much they’re planning to spend on stimulus to support the post-virus economy, when they belatedly announce their economic policy blueprint for the rest of 2020. The centerpiece event will be the work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang, which typically contains the economic growth and spending targets, …

China May Tighten Australian Coal Imports Amid Tensions

China may tighten Australian coal imports amid recent tensions between the two countries, according to a daily note from China Coal Market, which is affiliated with China Coal Transport and Distribution Association. * If the curbs are put in place, Australian coal prices will be hit, said the note * NOTE: China targeted Australian coal …

China construction in the bubble, iron ore demand risk remains

Ferrous Sector Money Flow: DCE iron ore aggregated open interest is up 38.97% from April 29th and reached the highest level in Q2, coking coal decreased by 18.55% during the same period. Steel, coke and flat glass used in house construction remained stable on open interest. Investors should be aware of money flow out of …

Commodities Bounce Back on Chinese Stimulus Anticipation and Vaccine Hopes

Freight prices jumped on Monday with front month Capesize futures up over 10% on anticipation of a large stimulus package out of China later this week. This created a knock-on effect into the smaller vessels with the Panamax front month futures up over 5%. Oil futures performed well with a USD 3.00 move higher, as …

China’s Industrial Economy Improves While Consumers Remain Wary

China’s industrial output increased in April for the first time since the coronavirus outbreak, adding to early signs of a recovery that economists cautioned would be slow and challenging. Industrial output rose 3.9% from a year earlier, reversing a drop of 1.1% in March, data showed Friday. Fixed-asset investment decreased 10.3% in the first four …

Aussie Pressured by Fed’s Push Back and China Beef Ban

Aussie Pressured by Fed’s Push Back and China Beef Ban The Australian dollar briefly rose above its 100-day moving average again this week in what appears to be a false break after Federal Reserve officials pushed back on the notion of negative U.S. rates. The currency had been stuck below the rolling gauge since January …