Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
• Neutral.
Macro:
• IMF published World Economy Development Outlook, increased China economy growth rate in 2023 by 0.8% to 5.2%. The organisation also increased global economy growth by 0.2% to 2.9%.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $127.40, +0.40, MTD $122.64.Physical market started to see great volume today after the derivatives market saw a consecutive correction for two trading days. JMBF and Yandi discount were similar to mid-January. Thus, the fixed price was rather high with bubbles created during Chinese holiday with no real trade. In addition, import margin became negative again, which potentially limit the growth of the index.
• Australian iron ore producer Mount Gibson expects to come in at the bottom of its 3.2mn-3.7mn wet metric tonne (wmt) sales guidance and top of its cost guidance for its Koolan Island mine in Western Australia (WA) for the 2022-23 fiscal year to 30 June.
• Australia miner FMG narrowed SSF discount from 13.5% to 12.5%, 8.5% to 7.5% for FBF, 2.75% to 2.25% for WPF.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Jan 31st)
l Futures 91,634,700 tons(Decrease 24,025,200 tons)
• Options 68,919,500 tons(Decrease 16,921,100 tons)
Steel Key Indicators:
• According to the World Iron and Steel Association, the global crude steel output in December 2022 was 140.7 million tons, down 10.8% year on year. In 2022, the global crude steel production fell by 4.2% to 1.88 billion tons. In December 2022, China’s crude steel output was 77.9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%.
Coal Indicators:
• As expected, the FOB Australia coking coal market maintained quiet after speculated on the rail accident. Tradeable values were heard at $320-$340/mt FOB for Australia premium mid-vol Goonyella.