Market Verdict on Iron Ore:
• Neutral.

 

Macro:
• The Bank of China Research institute estimated China Q1 GDP growth rate at 4.1%, Q2 GDP growth rate at 7.6%, the high of the year. The high Q2 prediction was contributed by the recovery of economy and low base effect in 2022.

 

Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $122.40, -4.90, MTD $122.40. The rumor of speculative activity control in China enabled traders to maintain watch and see mode on the physical side. There is yet any evidence to proof the validity of this rumor. However the sharp drop on futures market had proven a high probability.
• MySteel Australia and Brazil iron ore delivery at 26.62 million tons from the week ended in April 2nd, up 2.594 million tons w-o-w.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Apr 3rd)
• Futures 88,262,700 tons(Increase 1,226,300 tons)
• Options 96,525,000 tons(Increase 2,013,200 tons)

 

Steel Key Indicators:
• China construction steel trading volume fell back to lower range again, with soft offers on spot market during last two weeks. Traders even expected a drop on physical market as well. Marginal demand diminished along with the limited supply.

 

Coal Indicators:
• Australia FOB market saw active trades and enquires after the big slides on the index price. There were PLVs sold around $300 during last week and early this week. Traders mentioned that PLV and PMV spread potentially widen because of the demand increased in PLVs in China market.