Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
• Neutral to bearish.
Macro：
• ECB announced that the strong EU salaries increase would become important factor to support interest hike.
• U.S. Atlantic Federal president Raphael Bostic predicted a 1% economy growth in U.S. in 2023 instead of recession. Bostic believed that inflation rate potentially drop to 3% by the end of 2023.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $118.70, -1.10, MTD $118.07. Downstream market of China approaching an end before Chinese New Year in late January. Both ports and seaborne trade return to quiet market. PBF float premium were assessed at $1.2-1.8 based on February index; the February demand grew significantly. The float premium was strong compared to fixed price. The winter iron ore stock for Chinese mills entered a end with Chinese New Year looming, with most of stocks were purchased in portside, with flexible size and time. Steel mills suffered negative production margin because the uptick of raw materials and low steel sales. The market expected a correction on iron ore with lower marginal demand.
• Chinese 45 ports iron ore arrivals at 24.82 million tons, down 1.999 million tons on the week. Northern six ports iron ore arrivals at 14.35 million tons, down 201,000 tons.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Jan 9th)
• Futures 96,224,100 tons(Increase 2,394,200 tons)
• Options 71,120,100 tons(Increase 1,824,300 tons)
Steel Key Indicators：
• MySteel surveyed 40 independent EAFs average cost 4217 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton. Average loss 16 yuan/ton, improved 39 yuan/ton from last week.
Coal Indicators：
• Chinese northern steel mills started to lower offer price of physical coke by 100-110 yuan/ton because of the general loss on steel production, effective from January 10th.