Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
• Neutral to bullish.

 

Macro
• Chinese September Caixin PMI 49.3, first time below boom and bust line after June. Caixin Manufacturing PMI down 1.4% at 48.1.

 

Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $95.80, unchanged, MTD $95.62. The trade activity in general eased off before and during golden weeks in China. Lump trade grew as the production restriction on sintering ores in Tanghshan in mid-late October. PBF and NMHG regained popularity, with significantly improved volume in late half of August, however the premium disappeared as the strong U.S. dollar versus Chinese yuan diminish the buying power of import cargoes. CSN sold multiple laycans of IOC6 at October Index with a discount of $4.6- 4.75 during last two weeks, currently market saw improving interest in high silica products.
• Tangshan estimated industrial activities control over Oct 14 – 22nd. Some steel mills indicated that they would be required to cut 50% production on sintering, with sintered ores useable days from 7- 10 days so far. Net, mills believed that the impact should be limited if no further extension on the length of cut.
• MySteel 45 ports iron ore inventories at 129.62 million tons, down 1.14 million tons w-o-w. Daily evacuation 3.05 million tons, down 268,800 tons w-o-w. Australia iron ore 58.8956 million tons, up 831,600 tons w-o-w. Brazil iron ore 45.57 million tons, down 519,100 tons w-o-w. 91 ships at ports, up 10.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Oct 7th)
• Futures 86,903,600 tons(Increase 98,200 tons)
• Options 67,575,500 tons(Unchanged)

 

 

Steel Key Indicators
• Mysteel researched 247 blast furnace operation rate at 83.5%, up 0.69% w-o-w, up 5.98% on the year. Utilisation rate 88.98%, down 0.17% w-o-w, up 9.03% on the year. Daily pig iron production 2.3994 million tonnes, down 2,800 tonnes.

 

Coal Indicators
• FOB Australia coking coal rebounded continuously last week as concerns raised upon tightening supply on seaborne markets. The index hooked trade was a PMV from Goonyella traded at $276.5, November laycan.
• Chinese Mysteel 110 cokeries utilisation rate 76.01% up 0.23% on the week.