Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
· Iron ore short-run market bearish.
Macro
· China PM Li, Keqiang requested to follow the onshore commodity relation with offshore commodity, to resolve the quick increase of commodity price. Strengthen currency policy and keep economy stable.
· U.S. CPI April increase 4.2%, created new high since September 2008. Estimation 3.6%, last 2.6%. Federal interest rate increase probability before December 2022 increased from 88% to 100%. Dow Jones corrected 1.99%.
· China April M2 Money Supply raises 8.1% on the year, est. 9.2%.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
· Platts62 $233.10, +4.20, MTD $209.47。No Platts index today since the holiday. Only BRBF traded at $240 yesterday, so the high index was mostly driven by strong futures market sentiment.
· China NDRC and Market Regulation Administration started joint research in Hebei Province, response to the big increase on iron ore and steel price.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (May 12th)
· Futures 80,789,500 tonnes(Increase 1,270,300 tonnes)
· Options 72,382,200 tonnes(Increase 1,770,000 tonnes)
Steel Key Indicators
· MySteel Rebar Inventory: Rebar production 3.72 million tonnes, down 1.42% w-o-w. Mills inventory 2.91 million tonnes, down 14.47% w-o-w. Circulation inventory 8.65 million tonnes, down 3.58% w-o-w.
· MySteel researched northern steel mill before tax pig iron cost 3356 yuan/tonne, down 78 yuan/tonne w-o-w. Steel production profit 1490 yuan/tonne, up 582 yuan/tonne.
