Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
• Neutral to bullish.

 

Macro
• The biggest four National Banks in China decreased saving rate in September 15th.
• U.S. Shale oil and gas companies announced European buyers that they can’t provide additional energies in this winter. Once Europe ban on Russia oil taking into effect, oil supply expected to become extreme tight again.
• U.S. 5-Year T-bond yield refreshed highest since 2018 at 3.6209%. T-note yield at 3.4307%.

 

Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $101.05, +0.25, MTD $99.48. The structure curve of Oct-Nov22 recovered from low area at $0.35 to $0.55, which was a mid-level area because the medium of spread of second and third month was $0.57 tracing back last 12 months. PBF and NMHG regained popularity, with significantly improved volume in late half of August and discount/premium, however market participants believed that the current level was close to roof area as there were not enough room on the steel margin left. Thus, low grade and discount iron ores including JMBF regained market interest with narrowing discounts.
• MySteel 45 ports iron ore inventories at 137.19 million tons, up 299,300 tons w-o-w. Daily evacuation 2.7978 million tons, down 187,700 tons w-o-w. Australia iron ore 62.78 million tons, down 1.30 million tons w-o-w. Brazil iron ore 46.38 million tons, up 681,700 tons w-o-w. 69 ships at ports, up 3.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Sep 14th)
• Futures 101,575,500 tons(Decrease 30,100 tons)
• Options 90,193,600 tons(Increase 397,500 tons)

 

 

Steel Key Indicators
• Arcelor Mittal announced to close the No. 3 blast furnace in Poland, the rest two maintain normal operation. Arcelor Mittal has closed blast furnaces in France, Germany, Austria in September.
• Shanggang Group estimated that China would decrease by 55-60 million tons on steel export, increase 20 million tons on imports.
• Integrated steelmaker US Steel has idled its No. 8 blast furnace at its Gary Works steel mill in Indiana, which has a raw steel capacity of 1.5mn short tons (st)/yr, was idled on 7 September, the company said. It did not disclose a restart date.