Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
• Neutral.
Macro:
• OECD predicted that the global economy growth rate could slow down from 3.1% to 2.2% in 2023.
• ECB officer Holzmann supported the interest hike of 75 bps in December.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $94.20, -2.05, MTD $91.18.The seaborne market saw less bids although macro environment recovered during last two weeks. PBF and NHGF were fixed in the late half of last week. India announced to cut export duties from 45-50% to 30% on the iron ore and pellets with ferrous grade below 58%. Previously, Chinese iron ore import from India down 70% during the first nine months because of tariff increase in May. MySteel estimated the India export would recover to 4.5- 5 million tons per month from December or next January. However many Asian mills indicated that the allocation of furnace input were fixed for the rest of year. Thus, there should be no marginal demand for December or late November laycans.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Nov 22nd)
• Futures 119,032,000 tons(Increase 320,200 tons)
• Options 93,523,900 tons(Increase 2,168,000 tons)
Steel Key Indicators:
• MySteel estimated the housing steel demand down 9.5 million tons in 2023, among which rebar demand drop 4.8 million tons accordingly.
Coal Indicators:
• Chinese major cokery plants proposed to increase offer by 100 yuan/ton because of the loss, yet to wait mills response.
• Australia FOB market suffered a 23.17% loss in November to $246.5. Current end user Square Resources bid at $230 for PMV. The lowest offer for December laycan HCCA at $245.
