Market Verdict on Iron Ore：
• Neutral.
Macro:
• China State Council proposed to increase financial support for the real economy, appropriately use monetary policy tools such as reserve ratio reduction in due time, and maintain sufficient liquidity. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to promote major projects to speed up capital payment and construction, and drive private enterprises and other social capital investment.
• U.S. last week jobless claims filed at 240,000 units, refreshed the biggest increase since the week in August 13th of 2022. Most U.S. Federal officers indicated to slow down interest hike in 2023.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $95.20, +1.00, MTD $91.42. The seaborne market saw less bids although macro environment recovered during last two weeks. PBF and NHGF were fixed in the late half of last week. India announced to cut export duties from 45-50% to 30% on the iron ore and pellets with ferrous grade below 58%. Previously, Chinese iron ore import from India down 70% during the first nine months because of tariff increase in May. MySteel estimated the India export would recover to 4.5- 5 million tons per month from December or next January. However many Asian mills indicated that the allocation of furnace input were fixed for the rest of year. Thus, there should be no marginal demand for December or late November laycans.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Nov 22nd)
• Futures 119,032,000 tons(Increase 320,200 tons)
• Options 93,523,900 tons(Increase 2,168,000 tons)
Steel Key Indicators:
• Tangshan average pig iron cost 2799 yuan/ton, average billet cost 3652 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton on the week. Average production loss at 132 yaun/ton.
Coal Indicators:
• Several steel mills in Tangshan accepted coke price rise by 100 yuan/ton.
• Australia FOB market suffered a 23.17% loss in November to $246.5. Current end user Square Resources bid at $230 for PMV. The lowest offer for December laycan HCCA at $245.
