Verdict:
• Short-run Neutral.
Macro:
• European Central Bank Governing Council member said that the first interest rate cut may be carried out in mid-2024, and the bet on the ECB’s interest rate cut in April next year seems a bit optimistic. The governor expected the economy to grow by 2.4% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.
• The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its secondary estimate of Q3 GDP that the annual growth rate was revised to 5.2%, compared with the previous 4.9%. This is the fastest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021.
• China November Manufacturing PMI 49.4, last 49.5, est. 49.7. Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.2, last 50.6, est. 50.9
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $130.45, +1.00, MTD $130.38. There were massive seaborne trades through platform yesterday. Two MACFs were traded at $131.5/dmt. PBF were traded at similar level from $2.2 to $2.3 premium during this week. However, the brand differential fell sharply for MACF, the spread widened from $1.4 to $1.7.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Nov 29th)
• Futures 146,490,900 tons(Increase 3,773,600 tons)
• Options 125,414,100 tons(Increase 1,145,000 tons)
Steel Key Indicators:
• Tangshan billet cost at 3790 yuan/ton, up yuan/ton on the week, average loss at 160 yuan/ton, improved 87 yuan/ton.
Coal Indicators:
• After the fast increase of China physical coke market by 200-220 yuan/ton during past 8 trading days, some cokery plants started to see a marginal gain. Cokery plants are heard to propose the third round of price hike. Market participants doubted the acceptance from mills side.
