Ferrous Market
– Ganggu Construction Steel Inventory: production 5.18 million tonnes, up 106,900 tonnes w-o-w. Mills inventory 10.37 million tonnes, up 165,500 tonnes w-o-w. Circulation inventory 17.55 million tonnes, up 601,000 tonnes w-o-w.
– Baosteel increase HRC price in April by 300 yuan/tonne from March.
– MySteel Australia and Brazil iron ore total delivery at 22.08 million tonnes, down 1.996 million tonnes w-o-w. Australia iron ore delivery 15.17 million tonnes, down 2.83 million tonnes w-o-w. Australia delivery to China 11.87 million tonnes, down 2.69 million tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore delivery 6.91 million tonnes, up 838,000 tonnes w-o-w. Global iron ore delivery 27.89 million tonnes, down 4.24 million tonnes w-o-w.
– Nippon Steel planned to decrease annual crude steel capacity by 20% to 40 million tonnes since steel demand expected decreasing, as well as to realise the carbon neutral target.
Macro
– OECD estimated China economic growth at 7.8% in the year 2021. 2022 estimated 4.9% increase. 2021 global GDP estimated 5.6%, previous estimated at 4.2%.
– China February CPI – 0.2%, est. -0.3%, last – 0.3%. China February PPI + 1.7%, est.1.5%, last 0.3%.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Mar 9th)
– Futures 73,870,100 tonnes(Increase 817,700 tonnes)
– Options 53,987,400 tonnes(Increase 1,060,000 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term neutral to bearish.