Ferrous Market
– China Iron ore 45 port arrivals at 24.37 million tonnes, down 2.998 million tonnes w-o-w. Northern six port arrivals at 11.35 million tonnes, down 4.25 million tonnes w-o-w.
– MySteel Australia and Brazil iron ore total delivery at 19.77 million tonnes, down 1.57 million tonnes w-o-w. Australia iron ore delivery 14.02 million tonnes, down 1.32 million tonnes w-o-w. Australia delivery to China 11.96 million tonnes, down 1.165 million tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore delivery 5.75 million tonnes, down 252,000 tonnes w-o-w.
– China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Recap(Jan 26th):
1. Prohibit new steel making capacity.
2. Complete and increase efficiency on capacity change
3. Increase the concentration of steel industry
4. Decrease steel production in 2021 on the basis production of 2020
– Major big steel mills in China made winter stock policy. Some mills started to maintaince before Chinese New Year.
Macro
– U.S. January Markit Manufacturing PMI 59.1, last 56.5, previous 57.1, a historical high.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest(Jan 26th)
– Futures 86,269,500 tonnes(increase 1,658,400 tonnes)
– Options 48,614,200 tonnes(increase 555,000 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term neutral to bearish.
