Ferrous Market
– MySteel Australia and Brazil iron ore total delivery at 24.69 million tonnes, up 4.92 million tonnes w-o-w. Australia iron ore delivery 17.05 million tonnes, up 3.02 million tonnes w-o-w. Australia delivery to China 13.13 million tonnes, up 1.175 million tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore delivery 7.645 million tonnes, up 1.896 million tonnes w-o-w.
– 2020 China private steel mills produced 665.69 million tonnes of crude steels, account for 63.21%(up 1.21%) total crude steel production.
– Ganggu Construction Steel Inventory: production 4.95 million tonnes, down 42,100 tonnes w-o-w. Mills inventory 6.51 million tonnes, up 607,200 tonnes w-o-w. Circulation inventory 9.14 million tonnes, up 1.42 million tonnes w-o-w.
– MySteel indicated that steel inventory at 17.85 million tonnes during the third week before Chinese New Year, up 30.5%(compared with 2020, third week before CNY), and up 32.2%(2019).
Macro
– China electricity council: China 2021 expected electricity generated up 6-7% y-o-y.
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SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest(Feb 2nd)
– Futures 72,403,800 tonnes(increase 1,652,800 tonnes)
– Options 44,032,500 tonnes(decrease 100,000 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term neutral to bearish.
