*RCF requests extension on tender offers*
The issuance of LOIs was expected to start this week, and round out India’s latest urea purchasing tender. Almost 2.2mn tonnes are believed to have been accepted against RCF’s counterbids; however the importer requested a two day extension on the validity of offers Monday (when they were due to expire). No significant issues are anticipated, with RCF still expected to issue LOIs for what will be a record purchase. The tender result was seen as supportive for nearby international values, with significant supply to be taken out of the market. AG paper found value this past week in the low $250s for Q4, with December trading $250-3 and bid support for November at the same level. Egypt and Brazil paper values have come under pressure however, on softer physical numbers, although not trading lower on paper just yet. Meanwhile calendar spreads continue to be on trend in Nola, with Nov/Feb trading at -10 and Dec/Feb trading at -7.5 for a total of 24kt on Tuesday. The Q221 strip also traded for the first time last week for Nola urea, printing $235, slightly firmer than where Q121 value was seen at the time.
*DAP traders focus on Q1*
Nola DAP futures tracked sideways this week, with attention shifting from the nearby to the deferred market. With the upcoming ITC ruling (expected late November) on whether there should be a duty on imported phosphate fertilizer from Morocco and Russia to the US, most traders are starting to focus on Q1 timeframe in the futures market. It’s a split verdict, although most traders believe the ITC ruling will go through, this isn’t a guarantee, so hence we’re seeing conviction in the market for Q1 in the mid-340s. Some traders, however, see too much risk ahead of the ruling, so the entire market is not active right now.