*AG Urea’s time in the spotlight*
Talk of an Indian urea tender being announced as early as next week, has brought even more of a buzz over already heated urea markets this past week. As a result and true to form, it was AG urea’s turn to surge in values. Physical trading occurred at $332/mt fob AG over the weekend, up $10 on earlier the week, before values moved another $8 higher to trade $340/mt this week. Paper values lead the market higher, with futures trading up $21 dollars in just 4 short trading days, printing from 330 on Thursday to a recent high of 351 Tuesday this week for the March contract and seemingly supported at that level. Nola urea futures have steadily tracked higher in similar fashion, gaining around $18 in the nearby months, last trading 341 for the March and April expiries. Not to be forgotten, Egyptian urea values have also moved another $10 higher on physical this week alone, with last done now at $360 fob, whilst cfr Brazil business has been heard at the same level. Buyers on paper have yet to be seen chasing values higher in the respective paper markets however, with sellers still showing willingness to offer around current physical levels.
*Phosphate prices show no signs of slowing*
Phosphate markets continue to rise, with physical product seemingly no where to be found on offer. Nola DAP futures have reached 490 for the Feb and Mar contracts as of Tuesday night. That represents a $102 increase for the February contract from where it last printed in 2020, at 388 on 30th December, and it seems prices still have further to run. Physical MAP values are now pegged around $530-540 for Nola barges, with DAP values expected to track higher and close the gap as product is substituted for lack of MAP supply. Meanwhile physical MAP has been heard to have traded as high as $500 for cfr Brazil. However, liquidity in the Brazil MAP paper market remains thin with no open interest on futures and new shorts steering clear of this rapidly rising market.