International paper prices flat through Q3
Futures curves remain relatively flat through the Q3 timeframe and into Q4 across intl urea paper contracts. Nearby values continue to move uniformly in line with physical, as the market awaits clear direction for where prices will go within the quarter.
Arab Gulf prices firmer
AG urea prices were seen firmer this week on both paper and physical, trading multiple times near $230 for August paper after physical business was done at $231 for a July cargo late last week. Paper markets continue to see bid support in the mid-220s across nearby contracts, with interest from Asian based traders looking to hedge exposure ahead of further Indian business. Interest on the sell side has been evident from larger players, looking to capitalise on the recent rebound in paper prices.
Nola prices rally into 4th of July holiday weekend
The past week saw a strengthening of Nola urea prices, including a flurry of activity into the 4th of July holiday weekend. We attribute the firming of Nola prices over the past couple of weeks to expectations of another Indian tender supporting global prices along with re-export business contributing on the domestic front.
DAP sees increased liquidity
DAP futures have seen high volumes trade over the past week following on from Mosaic’s filing for countervailing duty investigations. Prices have moved higher across the curve, with multiple trades occurring out to Q420. Of note, Q3 is currently trading at a premium to Q4 which was a surprise to some, but the belief of others in the market is that Q4 will see more imports hit Nola.